NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Memphis Grizzlies
Home Team
53.3%
VS
Dallas Mavericks
Away Team
46.7%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Javon Small
OR
107.5
DR
120.9
PTS
8.1
VS
Max Christie
OR
112.8
DR
118.2
PTS
12.7
SG
Cam Spencer
OR
132.2
DR
119.9
PTS
11.3
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.3
DR
113.8
PTS
20.1
SF
Jaylen Wells
OR
111.0
DR
119.2
PTS
12.6
VS
Naji Marshall
OR
117.0
DR
116.2
PTS
15.0
PF
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.4
DR
117.6
PTS
8.2
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
100.5
DR
113.1
PTS
13.9
C
Taylor Hendricks
OR
110.7
DR
120.8
PTS
10.7
VS
Daniel Gafford
OR
118.4
DR
111.4
PTS
8.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Memphis Grizzlies are the pick to win (53.3% probability).
Expected starting five — Memphis: Javon Small, Cam Spencer, Jaylen Wells, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Taylor Hendricks. Dallas: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 231.74 points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring game with both teams likely to push the pace. The expected spread is 4.29 (home minus away), giving the home side a modest 4.29-point edge heading into tipoff.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
231.7
Most likely outcome: 231 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Dallas Mavericks)
4.3
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are sliding: Memphis’ power rating has fallen 32.6 points over five games, while Dallas has dropped 21.3.
Memphis Grizzlies
1373.1
-32.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1373.1 | -6.2 |
| 2026-03-09 | Brooklyn Nets | 1379.3 | -11.5 |
| 2026-03-07 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1390.8 | -6.7 |
| 2026-03-04 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1397.5 | -8.2 |
| 2026-03-03 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1405.7 | — |
Dallas Mavericks
1367.3
-21.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Atlanta Hawks | 1367.3 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Toronto Raptors | 1372.6 | -6.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | Boston Celtics | 1379.2 | -3.8 |
| 2026-03-05 | Orlando Magic | 1383.0 | -5.6 |
| 2026-03-03 | Charlotte Hornets | 1388.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Memphis Grizzlies
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 129 | 139 | -10 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 115 | 126 | -11 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 120 | 123 | -3 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 114 | 122 | -8 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 110 | 117 | -7 |
Dallas Mavericks
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 112 | 124 | -12 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 92 | 122 | -30 | |
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 120 | -20 | |
| Orlando Magic | 114 | 115 | -1 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 90 | 117 | -27 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs come in on three-game losing streaks. Memphis has still put up offense — they scored 129, 115 and 120 in their last three games (an average of 121.3 points) but surrendered 139, 126 and 123 (an average of 129.3), signaling decent scoring but trouble closing out on defense. Dallas has struggled to score, posting 112, 92 and 100 (101.3 average) while allowing 124, 122 and 120 (122.0 average), a slump on the offensive end that’s been costly.
Looking at the expected starters, Memphis’ five average an offensive rating of about 114.16 and a defensive rating of about 119.68 with an average of 10.18 points made per starter; Dallas’ starters average roughly a 111.20 offensive rating, a 114.54 defensive rating, and 14.08 points made per starter. That suggests Dallas’ starting unit produces more scoring per player and looks better on defense on paper, while Memphis carries a slight overall offensive-rating edge and more recent scoring output team-wide.
Final Prediction
Memphis gets the edge because of its ability to score consistently and a small power-rating advantage, reflected in the 53.3% win probability. The key factor to watch: can Memphis contain Cooper Flagg (20.1 points per game) and prevent Dallas from snapping out of its offensive funk?
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