NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
60.4%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
39.6%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.9
DR
108.4
PTS
31.7
VS
Baylor Scheierman
OR
113.5
DR
113.0
PTS
4.8
SG
Cason Wallace
OR
109.8
DR
106.7
PTS
8.8
VS
Derrick White
OR
118.7
DR
112.6
PTS
17.5
SF
Isaiah Joe
OR
121.5
DR
111.8
PTS
11.1
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.1
DR
113.6
PTS
28.3
PF
Luguentz Dort
OR
104.0
DR
111.0
PTS
8.7
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
116.2
DR
115.5
PTS
9.3
C
Chet Holmgren
OR
123.5
DR
103.8
PTS
17.3
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
134.8
DR
108.1
PTS
9.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to win (60.4% probability). Expected starting five — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren. Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 222.99 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game with an uptempo feel and efficient offenses on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 5.62 points in favor of the home team, though the projection still leans toward Oklahoma City as the game winner.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.0 Most likely outcome: 222 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Boston Celtics) 5.6 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s rating has been rising over the last five games while Boston’s has slipped slightly.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1672.2 +24.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-09 Denver Nuggets 1672.2 +5.9
2026-03-07 Golden State Warriors 1666.3 +4.9
2026-03-04 New York Knicks 1661.4 +9.5
2026-03-03 Chicago Bulls 1651.9 +4.1
2026-03-01 Dallas Mavericks 1647.8 —

Boston Celtics

1622.5 -8.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-10 San Antonio Spurs 1622.5 -8.2
2026-03-08 Cleveland Cavaliers 1630.7 +11.1
2026-03-06 Dallas Mavericks 1619.6 +3.9
2026-03-04 Charlotte Hornets 1615.7 -15.0
2026-03-02 Milwaukee Bucks 1630.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 129 126 +3
Golden State Warriors 104 97 +7
New York Knicks 103 100 +3
Chicago Bulls 116 108 +8
Dallas Mavericks 100 87 +13

Boston Celtics

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 116 125 -9
Cleveland Cavaliers 109 98 +11
Dallas Mavericks 120 100 +20
Charlotte Hornets 89 118 -29
Milwaukee Bucks 108 81 +27

Game Analysis

Oklahoma City enters on a three-game winning streak (wins over Denver, Golden State and New York), each a one- to three-possession game, showing they’ve been able to close tight contests. Boston is 2-1 over its last three, beating Cleveland and Dallas but dropping a game to San Antonio, which hints at some inconsistency. Momentum clearly favors the Thunder right now. Looking at the expected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of about 118.9 and a defensive rating near 108.3, with an average 15.5 points made per starter; Shai (31.7) and Chet (17.3) are the primary drivers. Boston’s group posts an average offensive rating around 119.5 but a higher defensive rating near 112.6, and about 14.0 points made per starter; Jaylen Brown (28.3) and Derrick White (17.5) will need big outings. The small defensive edge for OKC and their top-end scoring give them leverage.

Final Prediction

Thunder get the nod because of rising form, a sturdier defensive profile among their projected starters, and elite scoring from Shai and Chet. Key thing to watch: can Boston’s defense contain Shai’s scoring rhythm and keep Chet from dictating paint touches?

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel