NBA 2025-2026: Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Orlando Magic
Home Team
82.8%
VS
Washington Wizards
Away Team
17.2%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Suggs
OR
109.2
DR
107.6
PTS
13.7
VS
Trae Young
OR
125.5
DR
129.5
PTS
14.5
SG
Desmond Bane
OR
119.7
DR
116.3
PTS
20.6
VS
Tre Johnson
OR
106.5
DR
123.6
PTS
12.7
SF
Tristan Da Silva
OR
105.1
DR
114.2
PTS
9.3
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
107.3
DR
119.5
PTS
10.4
PF
Paolo Banchero
OR
112.1
DR
114.1
PTS
22.3
VS
Will Riley
OR
106.1
DR
124.1
PTS
8.4
C
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
121.9
DR
112.8
PTS
11.5
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
111.7
DR
117.2
PTS
17.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Orlando Magic are predicted to win (82.8% probability).
Expected starting five — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Tristan Da Silva, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Expected starting five — Washington Wizards: Trae Young, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Alex Sarr.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 236.96 points, pointing to a high-scoring affair and a fairly brisk pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 7.55 in favor of the home team, giving Orlando roughly a 7.6-point edge to work with.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
237.0
Most likely outcome: 237 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Orlando Magic - Washington Wizards)
7.5
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Orlando’s Elo is on the rise (+43.5 over five games) while Washington’s is sliding (-30.0), giving clear momentum to Orlando.
Orlando Magic
1551.2
+43.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1551.2 | +11.1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1540.1 | +11.4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1528.7 | +15.4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Dallas Mavericks | 1513.3 | +5.6 |
| 2026-03-03 | Washington Wizards | 1507.7 | — |
Washington Wizards
1322.8
-30.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Miami Heat | 1322.8 | -4.2 |
| 2026-03-08 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1327.0 | -8.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | Utah Jazz | 1335.6 | -11.5 |
| 2026-03-03 | Orlando Magic | 1347.1 | -5.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | Houston Rockets | 1352.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Orlando Magic
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 128 | 122 | +6 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 130 | 91 | +39 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 119 | 92 | +27 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 115 | 114 | +1 | |
| Washington Wizards | 126 | 109 | +17 |
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 129 | 150 | -21 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 138 | -20 | |
| Utah Jazz | 112 | 122 | -10 | |
| Orlando Magic | 109 | 126 | -17 | |
| Houston Rockets | 118 | 123 | -5 |
Game Analysis
Orlando arrives rolling: three straight wins — 128-122 at Cleveland, 130-91 over Milwaukee, and 119-92 versus Minnesota — showing both offensive firepower and the ability to close out games by comfortable margins. Washington is in the opposite trend with three straight losses — 129-150 to Miami, 118-138 to New Orleans, and 112-122 to Utah — and those results suggest defensive issues and trouble containing opponents.
Looking at the expected starters, Orlando’s five average offensive rating is 113.60 and defensive rating 113.00 with average points made 15.48; Washington’s projected five average offensive rating is 111.42 and defensive rating 122.78 with average points made 12.64. Orlando’s starters combine slightly better offense with a markedly stronger team defense (lower defensive rating), while Washington has Trae Young’s high offensive rating (125.5) but much higher defensive liabilities (129.5).
Final Prediction
Orlando’s current form, positive Elo momentum, and the gap in team defense give them the clear edge. Key factor to watch: whether Washington can slow Orlando’s starters enough to overcome the roughly 7.6-point spread.
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