NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
54.8%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
45.2%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.7
DR
113.0
PTS
19.0
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
124.4
DR
119.9
PTS
25.5
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
115.1
DR
111.3
PTS
16.3
VS
Christian Braun
OR
121.2
DR
117.5
PTS
10.8
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
115.1
DR
114.0
PTS
14.2
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
119.8
DR
114.9
PTS
16.6
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.9
DR
111.6
PTS
11.2
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
119.5
DR
118.8
PTS
11.2
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
118.9
DR
100.0
PTS
24.2
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
136.4
DR
112.9
PTS
28.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are favored to win (54.8% probability). Expected starting fives — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama; Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 233.71 points, pointing toward a fairly high-scoring game that will likely feature uptempo possessions and plenty of offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 5.24, which gives a clear edge to the home team by just over five points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.7 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Denver Nuggets) 5.2 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s rating has climbed strongly over the last five games while Denver’s has risen only modestly.

San Antonio Spurs

1694.2 +31.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-10 Boston Celtics 1694.2 +8.3
2026-03-08 Houston Rockets 1685.9 +7.5
2026-03-06 Los Angeles Clippers 1678.4 +5.6
2026-03-05 Detroit Pistons 1672.8 +10.4
2026-03-03 Philadelphia 76ers 1662.4 —

Denver Nuggets

1551.5 +5.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-11 Houston Rockets 1551.5 +14.0
2026-03-09 Oklahoma City Thunder 1537.5 -6.0
2026-03-06 New York Knicks 1543.5 -12.1
2026-03-05 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.6 +9.7
2026-03-02 Utah Jazz 1545.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 125 116 +9
Houston Rockets 145 120 +25
Los Angeles Clippers 116 112 +4
Detroit Pistons 121 106 +15
Philadelphia 76ers 131 91 +40

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 129 93 +36
Oklahoma City Thunder 126 129 -3
New York Knicks 103 142 -39
Los Angeles Lakers 120 113 +7
Utah Jazz 128 125 +3

Game Analysis

San Antonio arrives on a three-game winning streak (wins over Boston 125-116, Houston 145-120, and L.A. Clippers 116-112), carrying clear momentum. Denver is 1-2 over its last three, with a dominant 129-93 win over Houston but back-to-back losses including a heavy 103-142 defeat to New York, suggesting some inconsistency on defense. Looking at the expected starting units, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of about 117.14, a defensive rating of about 109.98, and roughly 16.98 points apiece. Denver’s starters average an offensive rating near 124.26, a defensive rating near 116.80, and about 18.54 points each. That frames the matchup: Denver brings superior offensive firepower (led by Jokić and Murray), while the Spurs’ starters profile as the stronger defensive group and have been scoring well as a unit lately.

Final Prediction

The Spurs’ recent form, improving power rating and cleaner defensive profile give them the narrow edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: can San Antonio’s defense slow Nikola Jokić and limit Denver’s high-efficiency offense enough to hold that ~5-point advantage?

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