NBA 2025-2026: Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Dallas Mavericks
Home Team
26.0%
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers
Away Team
74.0%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Max Christie
OR
112.3
DR
118.1
PTS
12.7
VS
James Harden
OR
126.7
DR
117.2
PTS
20.2
SG
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.5
DR
114.0
PTS
19.9
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.8
DR
114.8
PTS
28.3
SF
Khris Middleton
OR
110.3
DR
121.5
PTS
13.8
VS
Sam Merrill
OR
126.5
DR
118.7
PTS
12.7
PF
Naji Marshall
OR
115.9
DR
116.1
PTS
14.9
VS
Dean Wade
OR
127.7
DR
113.9
PTS
5.8
C
Marvin Bagley III
OR
125.9
DR
119.7
PTS
11.0
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
117.3
DR
111.1
PTS
17.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (74.0% probability).
Expected starting five — Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Khris Middleton, Naji Marshall, Marvin Bagley III. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 238.93 points, suggesting a relatively high-scoring game and a brisk pace. The expected spread is -6.41 (home - away), meaning the away team is about a 6.4-point favorite — a gap that lines up with Cleveland being the projected winner.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
238.9
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Cleveland Cavaliers)
-6.4
Most likely outcome: -7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show slight downward momentum in their recent power ratings: Dallas dipped about 4.4 points over five games while Cleveland fell about 3.2 points, though Cleveland remains well ahead overall.
Dallas Mavericks
1378.6
-4.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1378.6 | +11.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Atlanta Hawks | 1367.3 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Toronto Raptors | 1372.6 | -6.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | Boston Celtics | 1379.2 | -3.8 |
| 2026-03-05 | Orlando Magic | 1383.0 | — |
Cleveland Cavaliers
1592.3
-3.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Orlando Magic | 1592.3 | -11.1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1603.4 | +7.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Boston Celtics | 1596.0 | -11.2 |
| 2026-03-03 | Detroit Pistons | 1607.2 | +11.7 |
| 2026-03-01 | Brooklyn Nets | 1595.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Dallas Mavericks
1-4 in last 5
W
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 120 | 112 | +8 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 112 | 124 | -12 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 92 | 122 | -30 | |
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 120 | -20 | |
| Orlando Magic | 114 | 115 | -1 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-2 in last 5
L
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 122 | 128 | -6 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 115 | 101 | +14 | |
| Boston Celtics | 98 | 109 | -11 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 113 | 109 | +4 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 106 | 102 | +4 |
Game Analysis
Dallas is 1-2 across its last three games, beating Memphis 120-112 but getting handled in losses to Atlanta (112-124) and Toronto (92-122); their offense has been inconsistent. Cleveland is also 1-2, beating Philadelphia 115-101 but dropping games to Orlando (122-128) and Boston (98-109), showing they can score in bunches but can be vulnerable on defense.
Looking at the projected starters, Dallas’s five average to an offensive rating of about 114.4, defensive rating of about 117.9, and 14.5 average points made per starter. Cleveland’s projected five average roughly a 123.8 offensive rating, 115.1 defensive rating, and 16.9 points made per starter. Those differences — especially Cleveland’s higher offensive ceiling and slightly better team defense on the five — are meaningful.
Final Prediction
Cleveland’s stronger starting-five profile and the projected 6.4-point spread give them the edge. Key factor to watch: how Cleveland’s starters and Evan Mobley contain Dallas’s scoring bursts and whether Dallas can sustain offensive consistency.
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