NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Golden State Warriors
Home Team
33.5%
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves
Away Team
66.5%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Anthony Melton
OR
99.3
DR
112.3
PTS
13.0
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
118.3
DR
115.3
PTS
29.4
SG
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.0
DR
114.4
PTS
12.6
VS
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
117.7
DR
114.5
PTS
12.5
SF
Draymond Green
OR
103.1
DR
114.0
PTS
8.6
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
115.2
DR
115.3
PTS
14.7
PF
Gui Santos
OR
115.6
DR
113.1
PTS
7.5
VS
Julius Randle
OR
118.0
DR
114.7
PTS
21.1
C
Al Horford
OR
113.6
DR
111.5
PTS
8.4
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
133.1
DR
110.7
PTS
10.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model favors the Minnesota Timberwolves to win (66.5% probability).
Expected starting five — Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Al Horford. Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 230.5 points, indicating a fairly high-scoring game and an above-average pace for both teams.
With the spread at Home - Away = -3.35, the away side holds about a 3.35-point edge, which aligns with Minnesota being the favored team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
230.5
Most likely outcome: 230 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - Minnesota Timberwolves)
-3.4
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ power ratings are sliding over the last five games, with Minnesota down -30.6 and Golden State down -18.6.
Golden State Warriors
1472.4
-18.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Chicago Bulls | 1472.4 | -12.9 |
| 2026-03-09 | Utah Jazz | 1485.3 | -13.1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1498.4 | -4.9 |
| 2026-03-05 | Houston Rockets | 1503.3 | +12.3 |
| 2026-03-02 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1491.0 | — |
Minnesota Timberwolves
1555.8
-30.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1555.8 | -11.7 |
| 2026-03-10 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1567.5 | -11.4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Orlando Magic | 1578.9 | -15.4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Toronto Raptors | 1594.3 | +7.9 |
| 2026-03-03 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1586.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Golden State Warriors
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 124 | 130 | -6 | |
| Utah Jazz | 116 | 119 | -3 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 97 | 104 | -7 | |
| Houston Rockets | 115 | 113 | +2 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 101 | 114 | -13 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
2-3 in last 5
L
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 128 | 153 | -25 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 106 | 120 | -14 | |
| Orlando Magic | 92 | 119 | -27 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 115 | 107 | +8 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 117 | 110 | +7 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs enter on three-game losing streaks. Golden State lost by margins of 6, 3 and 7 (124-130, 116-119, 97-104), showing scoring inconsistency but close contests; Minnesota’s recent losses were wider and more erratic (128-153, 106-120, 92-119), suggesting defensive breakdowns in those outings. The Timberwolves’ results include a particularly lopsided defensive lapse against the Clippers.
Looking at the expected starting units, Minnesota’s five average an offensive rating of 120.5, a defensive rating of 114.1, and 17.7 average points made per starter; Golden State’s five average an offensive rating of 109.1, a defensive rating of 113.1, and 10.0 average points made per starter. That offensive gap — and Rudy Gobert’s standout 133.1 offensive rating inside a strong supporting cast led by Anthony Edwards — favors Minnesota, while Golden State’s slightly better team defensive number and veteran presence (Draymond, Horford) could keep this competitive.
Final Prediction
Minnesota is given the edge because of a substantially stronger projected starting-unit offense and star scoring, despite both teams trending down. Key factor to watch: whether Golden State’s defense can contain Anthony Edwards and limit high-efficiency looks around Gobert.
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