NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
35.6%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
64.4%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Andrew Nembhard
OR
113.5
DR
122.6
PTS
17.2
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.4
DR
116.7
PTS
26.2
SG
Aaron Nesmith
OR
104.3
DR
119.7
PTS
13.1
VS
Landry Shamet
OR
128.3
DR
114.6
PTS
10.0
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
100.8
DR
117.8
PTS
11.1
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.7
DR
113.1
PTS
15.0
PF
Obi Toppin
OR
96.8
DR
119.7
PTS
8.0
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
115.3
DR
112.0
PTS
16.6
C
Ivica Zubac
OR
150.0
DR
127.0
PTS
8.0
VS
Mitchell Robinson
OR
148.3
DR
107.4
PTS
5.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are favored to win (64.4% probability).
Expected starting fives — Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, Ivica Zubac. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Landry Shamet, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Mitchell Robinson.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 237.55 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo affair. The expected spread is -5.42 (home - away), giving the home team, the Knicks, about a 5.4-point edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
237.6
Most likely outcome: 237 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - New York Knicks)
-5.4
Most likely outcome: -6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show falling momentum over the recent stretch, with Indiana’s ratings dropping more steeply than New York’s.
Indiana Pacers
1308.4
-24.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Phoenix Suns | 1308.4 | -4.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Sacramento Kings | 1312.7 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-08 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1322.2 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1328.2 | -4.4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1332.6 | — |
New York Knicks
1598.1
-7.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Utah Jazz | 1598.1 | +4.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1593.5 | -11.7 |
| 2026-03-08 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1605.2 | -12.9 |
| 2026-03-06 | Denver Nuggets | 1618.1 | +12.1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1606.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Indiana Pacers
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 108 | 123 | -15 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 109 | 114 | -5 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 111 | 131 | -20 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 117 | 128 | -11 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 107 | 130 | -23 |
New York Knicks
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 134 | 117 | +17 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 118 | 126 | -8 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 97 | 110 | -13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 142 | 103 | +39 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 100 | 103 | -3 |
Game Analysis
Indiana arrives on a three-game losing streak, scoring 108, 109 and 111 while surrendering 123, 114 and 131 — signs of offensive stagnation and defensive lapses. New York is 1-2 in its last three but put up 134 in a win and averages roughly 116.3 points across those games, showing they can erupt offensively even if consistency has been an issue.
Looking at the expected starters, the Pacers’ five average an offensive rating near 113.08, a defensive rating around 121.36, and about 11.48 points made per starter; the Knicks’ group averages about a 127.8 offensive rating, a 112.76 defensive rating, and 14.6 points made per starter. That edge in both ends for New York — particularly scoring firepower from Jalen Brunson and finishing inside with Mitchell Robinson — tilts the matchup toward the Knicks.
Final Prediction
New York’s stronger two-way profile among the projected starters and home-court edge give them the advantage in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Indiana can slow Brunson and limit second-chance points around Mitchell Robinson.
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