NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Clippers
Home Team
74.1%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
25.9%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Kris Dunn
OR
118.7
DR
116.5
PTS
7.8
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
111.8
DR
116.5
PTS
17.9
SG
Kobe Sanders
OR
102.2
DR
118.4
PTS
6.9
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.5
DR
120.6
PTS
9.0
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
126.5
DR
118.4
PTS
11.3
VS
Leonard Miller
OR
104.1
DR
115.4
PTS
7.6
PF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.5
DR
112.4
PTS
28.3
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.5
DR
116.8
PTS
15.9
C
Brook Lopez
OR
96.4
DR
115.5
PTS
7.8
VS
Guerschon Yabusele
OR
108.1
DR
115.6
PTS
10.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Los Angeles Clippers are the pick to win (74.1% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Clippers: Kris Dunn, Kobe Sanders, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez. Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Isaac Okoro, Leonard Miller, Matas Buzelis, Guerschon Yabusele.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 242.35 points, signaling a fast-paced, high-scoring affair given both teams’ recent outputs. The expected spread of 7.59 points favors the Clippers, giving Los Angeles a clear margin to cover and suggesting they’re viewed as the stronger side here.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
242.3
Most likely outcome: 242 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - Chicago Bulls)
7.6
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Clippers’ power rating has climbed notably (+24.4 over five games) while the Bulls show a modest uptick (+6.9), indicating stronger momentum for Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Clippers
1563.2
+24.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1563.2 | +11.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | New York Knicks | 1551.6 | +11.8 |
| 2026-03-07 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1539.8 | +6.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | San Antonio Spurs | 1533.1 | -5.7 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indiana Pacers | 1538.8 | — |
Chicago Bulls
1404.7
+6.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1404.7 | -5.4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Golden State Warriors | 1410.1 | +12.9 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sacramento Kings | 1397.2 | -13.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | Phoenix Suns | 1410.8 | +13.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1397.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Clippers
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 153 | 128 | +25 | |
| New York Knicks | 126 | 118 | +8 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 123 | 120 | +3 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 112 | 116 | -4 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 130 | 107 | +23 |
Chicago Bulls
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 130 | 142 | -12 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 130 | 124 | +6 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 110 | 126 | -16 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 105 | 103 | +2 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 108 | 116 | -8 |
Game Analysis
The Clippers are rolling — three straight wins (153-128, 126-118, 123-120) and a recent offensive explosion against Minnesota. That kind of scoring consistency matters: Kawhi Leonard (28.3) has been the engine, supported by Derrick Jones Jr.’s scoring punch and a team that’s clicking on offense. Chicago has been up-and-down: a strong 130-124 win over Golden State sandwiched between losses (130-142 to L.A. Lakers, 110-126 to Sacramento) that expose defensive lapses.
Looking at the expected starting units, the Clippers’ five average an offensive rating of 113.86 and a defensive rating of 116.24 with an average 12.42 points made per starter; the Bulls’ starters average a 109.40 offensive rating and a 116.98 defensive rating with 12.12 points made per starter. Those edges — especially the Clippers’ higher offense and recent form — help explain the projected gap.
Final Prediction
Clippers’ hotter form, a superior starting-unit offensive rating, and Kawhi’s scoring give them the edge. Watch whether Los Angeles sustains its recent high scoring and whether Chicago can slow Kawhi and limit second-chance opportunities.
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