NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
76.1%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
23.9%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.5
DR
117.8
PTS
16.5
VS
Isaiah Collier
OR
113.3
DR
124.6
PTS
11.4
SG
Deni Avdija
OR
116.1
DR
116.9
PTS
24.3
VS
Cody Williams
OR
97.9
DR
124.5
PTS
6.2
SF
Jerami Grant
OR
118.1
DR
119.6
PTS
19.0
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
103.5
DR
123.2
PTS
12.5
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
110.6
DR
117.8
PTS
12.8
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.3
DR
124.6
PTS
13.1
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.0
DR
112.2
PTS
11.8
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
114.2
DR
118.6
PTS
10.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are the pick to win this one with a 76.1% probability. Expected starting five — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan. Utah: Isaiah Collier, Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 239.75 points, implying an up-tempo game with plenty of scoring opportunities. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.38, a sizable edge for the home side; since Portland is the projected winner, that margin would be especially meaningful if they’re playing at home.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 239.8 Most likely outcome: 239 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Probability distribution bar chart for total combined points in the Portland Trail Blazers versus Utah Jazz NBA game. The X-axis shows possible total points values, and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function (CDF) chart for total points in Portland Trail Blazers versus Utah Jazz. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability that the game total will be at or below each points threshold.

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Utah Jazz) 12.4 Most likely outcome: 12 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Probability distribution bar chart for the point spread (home minus away) in the Portland Trail Blazers versus Utah Jazz NBA game. Positive values indicate a home team lead, negative values an away team lead.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function (CDF) chart for the point spread in Portland Trail Blazers versus Utah Jazz. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

ELO Rating Trends

ELO rating progression chart for Portland Trail Blazers (orange) and Utah Jazz (blue) over their most recent games. The Y-axis shows each team's ELO rating and the X-axis shows game dates. Higher values indicate stronger performance.

Portland’s power rating is roughly stable with a slight dip over five games while Utah’s trend is rising.

Portland Trail Blazers

1477.5 -1.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-10 Charlotte Hornets 1477.5 -8.1
2026-03-08 Indiana Pacers 1485.6 +6.0
2026-03-06 Houston Rockets 1479.6 -7.4
2026-03-04 Memphis Grizzlies 1487.0 +8.2
2026-03-01 Atlanta Hawks 1478.8

Utah Jazz

1350.0 +13.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-11 New York Knicks 1350.0 -4.7
2026-03-09 Golden State Warriors 1354.7 +13.1
2026-03-07 Milwaukee Bucks 1341.6 -6.9
2026-03-05 Washington Wizards 1348.5 +11.5
2026-03-04 Philadelphia 76ers 1337.0

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Charlotte Hornets 101 103 -2
Indiana Pacers 131 111 +20
Houston Rockets 99 106 -7
Memphis Grizzlies 122 114 +8
Atlanta Hawks 101 135 -34

Utah Jazz

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 117 134 -17
Golden State Warriors 119 116 +3
Milwaukee Bucks 99 113 -14
Washington Wizards 122 112 +10
Philadelphia 76ers 102 106 -4

Game Analysis

Portland is 1-2 in their last three games, beating Indiana 131-111 but dropping close contests to Charlotte (101-103) and Houston (99-106). Utah is also 1-2, coming off a big loss to New York (117-134) and a solid 119-116 win over Golden State, with a 99-113 loss to Milwaukee in between. Both clubs have shown inconsistency recently, but Portland’s win over a high-scoring Indiana side highlights their offensive upside. Looking at the projected starters, Portland’s unit averages an offensive rating of 118.26 and a defensive rating of 116.86, with an average of 16.88 points made per starter. Utah’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 107.04 and a defensive rating of 123.10, with 10.74 points made per starter. That gap — especially Donovan Clingan’s 130.0 offensive rating and Portland’s higher scoring average — helps explain Portland’s clear edge.

Final Prediction

Portland’s starting five present a stronger two-way profile and higher scoring output, which supports the 76.1% pick and the projected double-digit spread. Watch how well Utah can slow Portland’s interior scoring and limit possessions; that matchup will likely decide the game.

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