NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Team
76.1%
VS
Utah Jazz
Away Team
23.9%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.5
DR
117.8
PTS
16.5
VS
Isaiah Collier
OR
113.3
DR
124.6
PTS
11.4
SG
Deni Avdija
OR
116.1
DR
116.9
PTS
24.3
VS
Cody Williams
OR
97.9
DR
124.5
PTS
6.2
SF
Jerami Grant
OR
118.1
DR
119.6
PTS
19.0
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
103.5
DR
123.2
PTS
12.5
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
110.6
DR
117.8
PTS
12.8
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.3
DR
124.6
PTS
13.1
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.0
DR
112.2
PTS
11.8
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
114.2
DR
118.6
PTS
10.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Portland Trail Blazers are the pick to win this one with a 76.1% probability.
Expected starting five — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan. Utah: Isaiah Collier, Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 239.75 points, implying an up-tempo game with plenty of scoring opportunities. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.38, a sizable edge for the home side; since Portland is the projected winner, that margin would be especially meaningful if they’re playing at home.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.8
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Utah Jazz)
12.4
Most likely outcome: 12 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Portland’s power rating is roughly stable with a slight dip over five games while Utah’s trend is rising.
Portland Trail Blazers
1477.5
-1.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Charlotte Hornets | 1477.5 | -8.1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Indiana Pacers | 1485.6 | +6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Houston Rockets | 1479.6 | -7.4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1487.0 | +8.2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Atlanta Hawks | 1478.8 | — |
Utah Jazz
1350.0
+13.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | New York Knicks | 1350.0 | -4.7 |
| 2026-03-09 | Golden State Warriors | 1354.7 | +13.1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1341.6 | -6.9 |
| 2026-03-05 | Washington Wizards | 1348.5 | +11.5 |
| 2026-03-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1337.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Portland Trail Blazers
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 101 | 103 | -2 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 131 | 111 | +20 | |
| Houston Rockets | 99 | 106 | -7 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 122 | 114 | +8 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 101 | 135 | -34 |
Utah Jazz
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 117 | 134 | -17 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 119 | 116 | +3 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 99 | 113 | -14 | |
| Washington Wizards | 122 | 112 | +10 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 102 | 106 | -4 |
Game Analysis
Portland is 1-2 in their last three games, beating Indiana 131-111 but dropping close contests to Charlotte (101-103) and Houston (99-106). Utah is also 1-2, coming off a big loss to New York (117-134) and a solid 119-116 win over Golden State, with a 99-113 loss to Milwaukee in between. Both clubs have shown inconsistency recently, but Portland’s win over a high-scoring Indiana side highlights their offensive upside.
Looking at the projected starters, Portland’s unit averages an offensive rating of 118.26 and a defensive rating of 116.86, with an average of 16.88 points made per starter. Utah’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 107.04 and a defensive rating of 123.10, with 10.74 points made per starter. That gap — especially Donovan Clingan’s 130.0 offensive rating and Portland’s higher scoring average — helps explain Portland’s clear edge.
Final Prediction
Portland’s starting five present a stronger two-way profile and higher scoring output, which supports the 76.1% pick and the projected double-digit spread. Watch how well Utah can slow Portland’s interior scoring and limit possessions; that matchup will likely decide the game.
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