NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
77.2%
VS
Phoenix Suns
Away Team
22.8%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
121.3
DR
114.8
PTS
17.3
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
121.6
DR
114.9
PTS
13.4
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
108.7
DR
114.1
PTS
21.5
VS
Devin Booker
OR
118.5
DR
116.6
PTS
25.3
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
114.6
DR
114.0
PTS
18.7
VS
Jalen Green
OR
97.4
DR
112.3
PTS
16.5
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.1
DR
109.9
PTS
18.8
VS
Royce O'Neale
OR
115.1
DR
114.1
PTS
10.1
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.2
DR
109.2
PTS
9.9
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
116.7
DR
112.1
PTS
6.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
I like the Toronto Raptors to win this one — predicted winner: Toronto Raptors (77.2% probability). Expected starting fives: Toronto — Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl; Phoenix — Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 224.03 points, signaling a relatively high-scoring game and a decent pace on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 4.07 points, meaning the home team gets roughly a four-point edge entering the game.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.0
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Phoenix Suns)
4.1
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Toronto’s power rating has been sliding (-23.3 over five games) while Phoenix’s has been climbing (+30.2 over five games), so momentum favors the Suns.
Toronto Raptors
1509.4
-23.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1509.4 | -12.7 |
| 2026-03-10 | Houston Rockets | 1522.1 | -9.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Dallas Mavericks | 1531.4 | +6.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1524.8 | -7.9 |
| 2026-03-03 | New York Knicks | 1532.7 | — |
Phoenix Suns
1559.7
+30.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Indiana Pacers | 1559.7 | +4.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1555.4 | +8.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Charlotte Hornets | 1547.0 | +11.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1535.6 | +6.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Chicago Bulls | 1529.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Toronto Raptors
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 111 | 122 | -11 | |
| Houston Rockets | 99 | 113 | -14 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 122 | 92 | +30 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 107 | 115 | -8 | |
| New York Knicks | 95 | 111 | -16 |
Phoenix Suns
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 123 | 108 | +15 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 129 | 114 | +15 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 111 | 99 | +12 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 116 | +2 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 103 | 105 | -2 |
Game Analysis
Toronto comes in 1-2 over the last three, dropping 111-122 to New Orleans and 99-113 to Houston before a bounce-back 122-92 win over Dallas. Phoenix is on a three-game winning streak, beating Indiana 123-108, Milwaukee 129-114, and Charlotte 111-99 — a clear run of form for the Suns. Those recent results show Toronto capable of blowouts but inconsistent, while Phoenix looks hot right now.
Looking at the expected starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of 117.2, defensive rating of 112.4, and about 17.2 points made per starter; Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of 113.9, defensive rating of 114.0, and about 14.3 points made per starter. That edge on both offense and defense for Toronto — plus scoring depth — helps explain the projected advantage.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s higher two-way ratings and deeper scoring from its starters give them the edge despite Phoenix’s momentum. Key factor to watch: whether Toronto’s starters can sustain offensive efficiency (117.2 team figure) against Phoenix’s recent hot offense.
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