NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Boston Celtics

Home Team
89.4%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
10.6%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Derrick White
OR
118.7
DR
112.6
PTS
17.5
VS
Trae Young
OR
135.3
DR
128.0
PTS
14.7
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.0
DR
113.6
PTS
28.4
VS
Tre Johnson
OR
105.0
DR
123.5
PTS
12.5
SF
Jayson Tatum
OR
103.7
DR
110.3
PTS
19.7
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
107.6
DR
119.6
PTS
10.8
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
115.9
DR
115.4
PTS
9.3
VS
Will Riley
OR
105.5
DR
124.1
PTS
8.4
C
Neemias Queta
OR
134.1
DR
108.0
PTS
9.8
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
111.8
DR
116.9
PTS
17.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Boston Celtics by 89.4%. EXPECTED starting five — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta. EXPECTED starting five — Washington Wizards: Trae Young, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Alex Sarr.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 232.06 combined points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring affair rather than a grind-it-out defensive game. The expected spread is Home - Away = 15.96, a nearly 16-point advantage for the home team (Boston), suggesting a large mismatch on paper.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.1 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Washington Wizards) 16.0 Most likely outcome: 16 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s rating has been essentially stable with a slight decline, while Washington’s rating is falling sharply over the last five games.

Boston Celtics

1615.0 -0.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1615.0 -7.5
2026-03-10 San Antonio Spurs 1622.5 -8.2
2026-03-08 Cleveland Cavaliers 1630.7 +11.1
2026-03-06 Dallas Mavericks 1619.6 +3.9
2026-03-04 Charlotte Hornets 1615.7 —

Washington Wizards

1319.3 -27.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-12 Orlando Magic 1319.3 -3.5
2026-03-10 Miami Heat 1322.8 -4.2
2026-03-08 New Orleans Pelicans 1327.0 -8.6
2026-03-05 Utah Jazz 1335.6 -11.5
2026-03-03 Orlando Magic 1347.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Boston Celtics

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 102 104 -2
San Antonio Spurs 116 125 -9
Cleveland Cavaliers 109 98 +11
Dallas Mavericks 120 100 +20
Charlotte Hornets 89 118 -29

Washington Wizards

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 131 136 -5
Miami Heat 129 150 -21
New Orleans Pelicans 118 138 -20
Utah Jazz 112 122 -10
Orlando Magic 109 126 -17

Game Analysis

Boston enters 1-2 in its last three (loss to OKC 102-104, loss to San Antonio 116-125, win over Cleveland 109-98). Those results show some defensive variance but a bounce-back vs. Cleveland. Washington is on a three-game skid (losses 131-136 vs Orlando, 129-150 vs Miami, 118-138 vs New Orleans) and has struggled to stop opponents, conceding a lot of points recently. Looking at the expected starting units, Boston’s five average OFFENSIVE RATING is 117.3, DEFENSIVE RATING 112.0, and average POINTS MADE 16.9. Washington’s projected starters average OFFENSIVE RATING 113.0, DEFENSIVE RATING 122.4, and average POINTS MADE 12.7. Those numbers favor Boston on both ends: better offensive efficiency, markedly stronger team defense, and more scoring from their starting group.

Final Prediction

Boston’s combination of steadier ratings, superior two-way numbers from the projected starters, and recent results give them a clear edge. Key factor to watch: whether Washington can tighten its defense to stop Boston’s starters—if not, the game could tilt into a blowout.

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