NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
80.3%
VS
Dallas Mavericks
Away Team
19.7%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
126.4
DR
116.1
PTS
19.9
VS
Max Christie
OR
112.4
DR
118.5
PTS
12.7
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
121.2
DR
114.7
PTS
28.2
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.7
DR
114.4
PTS
20.0
SF
Keon Ellis
OR
126.1
DR
108.3
PTS
8.1
VS
Naji Marshall
OR
115.9
DR
116.4
PTS
14.9
PF
Dean Wade
OR
128.4
DR
113.8
PTS
5.8
VS
Marvin Bagley III
OR
120.1
DR
121.2
PTS
10.4
C
Evan Mobley
OR
117.8
DR
110.9
PTS
17.9
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
100.8
DR
113.1
PTS
13.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model projects the Cleveland Cavaliers to win with an 80.3% probability. Expected starters — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Keon Ellis, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley; Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Marvin Bagley III, P.J. Washington.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 232.39 points, signaling a game that should trend toward a high-scoring, up-tempo affair. The expected spread is 14.74 points (Home - Away), giving Cleveland a large advantage and suggesting they’re expected to control the game from the jump.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.4
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Dallas Mavericks)
14.7
Most likely outcome: 15 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show modest downward momentum over the last five games (Cleveland down, Dallas down).
Cleveland Cavaliers
1598.1
-9.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Dallas Mavericks | 1598.1 | +5.8 |
| 2026-03-11 | Orlando Magic | 1592.3 | -11.1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1603.4 | +7.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Boston Celtics | 1596.0 | -11.2 |
| 2026-03-03 | Detroit Pistons | 1607.2 | — |
Dallas Mavericks
1372.8
-6.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1372.8 | -5.8 |
| 2026-03-12 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1378.6 | +11.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Atlanta Hawks | 1367.3 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Toronto Raptors | 1372.6 | -6.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | Boston Celtics | 1379.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 138 | 105 | +33 | |
| Orlando Magic | 122 | 128 | -6 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 115 | 101 | +14 | |
| Boston Celtics | 98 | 109 | -11 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 113 | 109 | +4 |
Dallas Mavericks
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 105 | 138 | -33 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 120 | 112 | +8 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 112 | 124 | -12 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 92 | 122 | -30 | |
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 120 | -20 |
Game Analysis
Cleveland comes in 2-1 over the last three, including a 138-105 rout of Dallas and a 115-101 win over Philadelphia, with a lone 122-128 loss to Orlando. Dallas is 1-2 in that span — hammered 105-138 in the rematch with Cleveland, edged Memphis 120-112, then fell 112-124 to Atlanta. The Cavaliers’ recent results include a dominant offensive outing against Dallas and a strong defensive showing in the Philadelphia game.
Looking at the projected starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 123.98 and a defensive rating of 112.76, with an average of 15.98 points made per starter. Dallas’ projected five average an offensive rating of 111.38 and a defensive rating of 116.72, with 14.36 points made per starter. That gap — Cleveland’s notably higher offense and cleaner defense — helps explain the sizable spread in Cleveland’s favor.
Final Prediction
Cleveland’s combination of elite offensive firepower and better defensive balance gives them the clear edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how Dallas can slow Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers’ supporting scoring while keeping pace offensively.
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