NBA 2025-2026: Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Milwaukee Bucks
Home Team
76.9%
VS
Indiana Pacers
Away Team
23.1%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Ryan Rollins
OR
111.8
DR
117.4
PTS
16.7
VS
Kam Jones
OR
115.8
DR
124.9
PTS
4.4
SG
A.J. Green
OR
113.8
DR
122.9
PTS
9.7
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
103.8
DR
119.3
PTS
13.1
SF
Giannis Antetokounmpo
OR
128.9
DR
114.5
PTS
27.5
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
100.8
DR
117.5
PTS
11.2
PF
Kyle Kuzma
OR
111.1
DR
119.2
PTS
13.2
VS
Kobe Brown
OR
113.1
DR
123.0
PTS
8.3
C
Myles Turner
OR
110.0
DR
116.0
PTS
12.2
VS
Ivica Zubac
OR
121.5
DR
113.0
PTS
9.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Milwaukee Bucks are projected to win (76.9% probability).
Expected starting five — Milwaukee Bucks: Ryan Rollins, A.J. Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner. Indiana Pacers: Kam Jones, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Kobe Brown, Ivica Zubac.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 219.66 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a solid offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread is 9.01 in favor of the home team, giving the Bucks a sizable cushion and indicating they’re expected to control this matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
219.7
Most likely outcome: 219 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Milwaukee Bucks - Indiana Pacers)
9.0
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are trending downward recently, with Milwaukee falling more sharply than Indiana.
Milwaukee Bucks
1420.7
-33.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Atlanta Hawks | 1420.7 | -7.4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Miami Heat | 1428.1 | -6.2 |
| 2026-03-10 | Phoenix Suns | 1434.3 | -8.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Orlando Magic | 1442.7 | -11.4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Utah Jazz | 1454.1 | — |
Indiana Pacers
1305.1
-23.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | New York Knicks | 1305.1 | -3.3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Phoenix Suns | 1308.4 | -4.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Sacramento Kings | 1312.7 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-08 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1322.2 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1328.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 99 | 122 | -23 | |
| Miami Heat | 105 | 112 | -7 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 114 | 129 | -15 | |
| Orlando Magic | 91 | 130 | -39 | |
| Utah Jazz | 113 | 99 | +14 |
Indiana Pacers
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 92 | 101 | -9 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 108 | 123 | -15 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 109 | 114 | -5 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 111 | 131 | -20 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 117 | 128 | -11 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs enter on three-game losing streaks. Milwaukee has dropped games to Atlanta (99-122), Miami (105-112) and Phoenix (114-129), showing they can still score but have surrendered a lot of points on consecutive nights. Indiana’s losses to New York (92-101), Phoenix (108-123) and Sacramento (109-114) show similar defensive issues and inconsistent scoring.
Looking at the projected starting fives, Milwaukee’s group averages a 115.12 offensive rating, a 118.00 defensive rating and 15.86 points made per starter. Indiana’s projected starters average a 111.00 offensive rating, a 119.54 defensive rating and 9.30 points made per starter. The Bucks’ starting five provides more scoring punch and a modest advantage on offense, while both units show defensive vulnerabilities that could inflate the final score.
Final Prediction
Milwaukee’s higher offensive profile among starters and the large spread give them the clear edge in this projection. Watch whether Milwaukee can tighten up defensively after recent blowouts — that defensive response will determine whether the result matches the projected margin.
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