NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
34.6%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
65.4%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Quentin Grimes
OR
114.7
DR
117.9
PTS
13.2
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
117.0
DR
117.7
PTS
16.7
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
111.6
DR
116.1
PTS
15.3
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
116.3
DR
116.8
PTS
24.1
SF
Dominick Barlow
OR
123.9
DR
116.3
PTS
8.2
VS
Jerami Grant
OR
117.4
DR
119.6
PTS
18.8
PF
Justin Edwards
OR
97.8
DR
117.3
PTS
5.2
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
110.1
DR
117.6
PTS
12.7
C
Adem Bona
OR
119.2
DR
114.2
PTS
4.7
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.4
DR
112.0
PTS
12.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Portland Trail Blazers to win (65.4% probability). Expected starting fives — Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona; Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected total is 236.12 combined points, pointing to a higher-scoring affair and a fairly up-tempo game script. The projected spread (Home - Away = -6.71) gives roughly a 6.7-point edge to the Trail Blazers, favoring Portland as the side to cover.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 236.1 Most likely outcome: 236 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Portland Trail Blazers) -6.7 Most likely outcome: -7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have dipped modestly over the last five games, with Philadelphia down 2.7 and Portland down 3.6.

Philadelphia 76ers

1501.7 -2.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-14 Brooklyn Nets 1501.7 +5.0
2026-03-12 Detroit Pistons 1496.7 -6.6
2026-03-10 Memphis Grizzlies 1503.3 +6.2
2026-03-09 Cleveland Cavaliers 1497.1 -7.3
2026-03-07 Atlanta Hawks 1504.4 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1483.4 -3.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-13 Utah Jazz 1483.4 +5.9
2026-03-10 Charlotte Hornets 1477.5 -8.1
2026-03-08 Indiana Pacers 1485.6 +6.0
2026-03-06 Houston Rockets 1479.6 -7.4
2026-03-04 Memphis Grizzlies 1487.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Philadelphia 76ers

2-3 in last 5
W L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 104 97 +7
Detroit Pistons 109 131 -22
Memphis Grizzlies 139 129 +10
Cleveland Cavaliers 101 115 -14
Atlanta Hawks 116 125 -9

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 124 114 +10
Charlotte Hornets 101 103 -2
Indiana Pacers 131 111 +20
Houston Rockets 99 106 -7
Memphis Grizzlies 122 114 +8

Game Analysis

Philadelphia is 2-1 over the last three: a 104-97 win over Brooklyn, a 109-131 loss to Detroit, and a 139-129 win over Memphis. Those results show scoring potential (139 points) but also a vulnerability — allowing 131 in the Detroit game and 129 in the Memphis win. Portland is also 2-1: wins 124-114 over Utah and 131-111 over Indiana, with a tight 101-103 loss to Charlotte, suggesting they can both score in bunches and defend enough to close games. Looking at the expected starting fives, Philadelphia’s unit averages an offensive rating of 113.44, defensive rating of 116.36, and 9.32 average points made per starter; Portland’s five averages a higher offensive rating of 118.24, defensive rating of 116.74, and 16.86 average points made per starter. Portland’s starting group combines more scoring from the core (notably Deni Avdija’s 24.1) and a top offensive tile in Donovan Clingan (130.4), which helps explain their edge.

Final Prediction

Portland’s combination of a stronger average offensive rating (118.24 vs. 113.44) and higher points from its starters gives them the projected advantage. Key factor to watch: whether Philadelphia can stop Portland’s primary scorers enough to counteract Portland’s offensive efficiency.

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