NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Toronto Raptors

Home Team
54.7%
VS

Detroit Pistons

Away Team
45.3%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
121.1
DR
115.0
PTS
17.3
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.2
DR
110.4
PTS
24.7
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.5
DR
114.2
PTS
21.7
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
113.6
DR
104.9
PTS
10.2
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
115.0
DR
114.0
PTS
18.8
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.2
DR
115.2
PTS
12.1
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
113.9
DR
109.9
PTS
18.7
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
116.3
DR
111.7
PTS
13.1
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
126.1
DR
109.6
PTS
9.7
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
130.9
DR
107.8
PTS
18.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Toronto Raptors are the pick to win (54.7% probability). Expected starting fives — Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 224.9 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game that should play at a brisk pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -3.51, meaning the home team is favored by about 3.5 points; if Detroit is at home that gives the Pistons the edge on the spread. Note that the win probability and the spread come from two separate models — one estimating outright likelihood and one estimating point margin — so they can point in different directions and both are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.9 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Detroit Pistons) -3.5 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Toronto’s power rating has slipped slightly over five games while Detroit’s has inched upward.

Toronto Raptors

1520.6 -4.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-13 Phoenix Suns 1520.6 +11.2
2026-03-11 New Orleans Pelicans 1509.4 -12.7
2026-03-10 Houston Rockets 1522.1 -9.3
2026-03-08 Dallas Mavericks 1531.4 +6.6
2026-03-05 Minnesota Timberwolves 1524.8 —

Detroit Pistons

1639.7 +1.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-13 Memphis Grizzlies 1639.7 +3.1
2026-03-12 Philadelphia 76ers 1636.6 +6.6
2026-03-10 Brooklyn Nets 1630.0 +4.4
2026-03-08 Miami Heat 1625.6 -12.8
2026-03-07 Brooklyn Nets 1638.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Toronto Raptors

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 122 115 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 111 122 -11
Houston Rockets 99 113 -14
Dallas Mavericks 122 92 +30
Minnesota Timberwolves 107 115 -8

Detroit Pistons

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 126 110 +16
Philadelphia 76ers 131 109 +22
Brooklyn Nets 138 100 +38
Miami Heat 110 121 -11
Brooklyn Nets 105 107 -2

Game Analysis

Toronto is 1-2 in its last three (a win over Phoenix, losses to New Orleans and Houston) and looks inconsistent offensively over that stretch. Detroit is on a three-game winning streak, putting up 126, 131 and 138 points in those victories — they’re playing with momentum and efficiency right now. Looking at the projected starters, Detroit’s group has a higher average offensive rating (121.2) and a better average defensive rating (110.0) than Toronto’s starters (offensive 117.1, defensive 112.5). Toronto’s starters combine for 86.2 points per game versus Detroit’s 78.8, so Toronto can lean on more distributed scoring while Detroit brings slightly better efficiency, especially around Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham.

Final Prediction

The Raptors get the nod because of deeper, more balanced scoring from the projected starters and matchup advantages inside, despite Detroit’s hot streak and efficiency edge. Key factor to watch: whether Detroit’s recent offensive surge holds up against Toronto’s interior defense led by Jakob Poeltl.

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