NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Atlanta Hawks

Home Team
57.5%
VS

Orlando Magic

Away Team
42.5%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
CJ McCollum
OR
110.3
DR
115.7
PTS
18.6
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
109.4
DR
108.0
PTS
14.1
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
116.5
DR
112.8
PTS
11.5
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
119.9
DR
116.3
PTS
20.6
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
112.3
DR
116.8
PTS
20.0
VS
Tristan Da Silva
OR
105.1
DR
113.9
PTS
9.6
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.9
DR
110.8
PTS
23.0
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
112.3
DR
114.3
PTS
22.3
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
115.7
DR
112.3
PTS
15.8
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.4
DR
112.8
PTS
11.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model leans Atlanta Hawks to win this one with a 57.5% probability. Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu; Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Tristan Da Silva, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game projects to be fairly high-scoring with an expected total of 233.84 points, suggesting a brisk pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 3.94, a modest edge for the home side that could be the difference in a close game.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.8 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - Orlando Magic) 3.9 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams are on the rise: Atlanta’s power rating climbed +27.3 over five games while Orlando’s climbed +36.8, indicating stronger recent momentum for the Magic.

Atlanta Hawks

1542.8 +27.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-14 Milwaukee Bucks 1542.8 +7.4
2026-03-12 Brooklyn Nets 1535.4 +4.7
2026-03-10 Dallas Mavericks 1530.7 +5.3
2026-03-07 Philadelphia 76ers 1525.4 +9.9
2026-03-04 Milwaukee Bucks 1515.5 —

Orlando Magic

1565.5 +36.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-14 Miami Heat 1565.5 +10.8
2026-03-12 Washington Wizards 1554.7 +3.5
2026-03-11 Cleveland Cavaliers 1551.2 +11.1
2026-03-08 Milwaukee Bucks 1540.1 +11.4
2026-03-07 Minnesota Timberwolves 1528.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Atlanta Hawks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 122 99 +23
Brooklyn Nets 108 97 +11
Dallas Mavericks 124 112 +12
Philadelphia 76ers 125 116 +9
Milwaukee Bucks 131 113 +18

Orlando Magic

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 121 117 +4
Washington Wizards 136 131 +5
Cleveland Cavaliers 128 122 +6
Milwaukee Bucks 130 91 +39
Minnesota Timberwolves 119 92 +27

Game Analysis

Atlanta arrives on a three-game winning streak, beating Milwaukee 122-99, Brooklyn 108-97 and Dallas 124-112 — signs their offense and defensive rotations have been clicking. Orlando is also 3-0 across its last three, though in higher-scoring affairs: wins over Miami 121-117, Washington 136-131 and Cleveland 128-122 point to a potent offense that can sometimes concede a lot of points. Both teams look confident, but the flavors differ: Hawks winning by more controlled margins, Magic in shootouts. Looking at the expected starters, Atlanta’s group averages an offensive rating of 114.34, defensive rating of 113.68, and average points made of 17.78 per starter. Orlando’s projected five average an offensive rating of 113.82, defensive rating of 113.06, and 15.66 points made per starter. The numbers show Atlanta has a slight scoring edge from its starters while Orlando’s starting five has a marginally better defensive rating.

Final Prediction

Atlanta’s combination of recent wins and a small edge in starter scoring gives them the projected advantage. Keep an eye on how Atlanta contains Orlando’s scoring burst — that matchup dynamic will likely determine whether the spread holds.

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