NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Memphis Grizzlies: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Chicago Bulls

Home Team
70.8%
VS

Memphis Grizzlies

Away Team
29.2%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Josh Giddey
OR
111.9
DR
116.4
PTS
18.0
VS
Javon Small
OR
107.5
DR
121.1
PTS
8.9
SG
Tre Jones
OR
129.6
DR
117.8
PTS
12.8
VS
Cedric Coward
OR
114.9
DR
116.8
PTS
13.2
SF
Leonard Miller
OR
104.8
DR
115.4
PTS
8.2
VS
Jaylen Wells
OR
111.5
DR
119.2
PTS
12.8
PF
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.3
DR
116.9
PTS
15.9
VS
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.0
DR
117.8
PTS
8.4
C
Jalen Smith
OR
119.0
DR
115.9
PTS
10.3
VS
Taylor Hendricks
OR
109.6
DR
120.5
PTS
10.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model backs the Chicago Bulls to win (70.8% probability). Expected starting fives — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Leonard Miller, Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith; Memphis Grizzlies: Javon Small, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Taylor Hendricks.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 241.77, signaling a game that could play at a fairly high pace with both teams capable of putting up points. The expected spread is Home - Away = 5.57, which gives a clear edge to the home side by about 5.6 points (whoever is designated the home team).

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 241.8 Most likely outcome: 242 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Memphis Grizzlies) 5.6 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show falling momentum over the last five games: Chicago down modestly, Memphis down more sharply.

Chicago Bulls

1399.5 -11.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-13 Los Angeles Clippers 1399.5 -5.2
2026-03-12 Los Angeles Lakers 1404.7 -5.4
2026-03-10 Golden State Warriors 1410.1 +12.9
2026-03-08 Sacramento Kings 1397.2 -13.6
2026-03-05 Phoenix Suns 1410.8 —

Memphis Grizzlies

1358.7 -32.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-13 Detroit Pistons 1358.7 -3.1
2026-03-12 Dallas Mavericks 1361.8 -11.3
2026-03-10 Philadelphia 76ers 1373.1 -6.2
2026-03-09 Brooklyn Nets 1379.3 -11.5
2026-03-07 Los Angeles Clippers 1390.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Chicago Bulls

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 108 119 -11
Los Angeles Lakers 130 142 -12
Golden State Warriors 130 124 +6
Sacramento Kings 110 126 -16
Phoenix Suns 105 103 +2

Memphis Grizzlies

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 110 126 -16
Dallas Mavericks 112 120 -8
Philadelphia 76ers 129 139 -10
Brooklyn Nets 115 126 -11
Los Angeles Clippers 120 123 -3

Game Analysis

Chicago enters 1-2 over the last three, dropping back-to-back games to Los Angeles teams (119-108 and 142-130) before beating Golden State 130-124; that win shows they can score in bunches but recent defense has been brittle. Memphis is in a rougher patch, 0-3 with losses to Detroit, Dallas and Philadelphia (110-126, 112-120, 129-139), struggling to keep opponents off the board while its scoring has been uneven. Looking at the projected starters, Chicago’s five average an offensive rating of about 114.9, a defensive rating near 116.5, and roughly 13.0 points made per starter. Memphis’s starters average about a 110.5 offensive rating, a 119.1 defensive rating, and about 10.8 points made per starter. Those numbers point to a Chicago edge both offensively and defensively from the projected starting units.

Final Prediction

Chicago’s starting unit profile and deeper scoring from its projected five give them the edge in this matchup despite the home-team spread. Key factor to watch: whether Chicago’s defense can contain Memphis’s scoring threats and prevent this game from turning into a shootout that favors variance.

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