NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Clippers
Home Team
40.3%
VS
San Antonio Spurs
Away Team
59.7%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Darius Garland
OR
118.3
DR
120.3
PTS
19.0
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.5
DR
113.2
PTS
19.1
SG
Kris Dunn
OR
118.1
DR
116.3
PTS
7.7
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
115.5
DR
111.5
PTS
16.6
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
126.1
DR
118.1
PTS
11.0
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
115.3
DR
114.3
PTS
14.2
PF
John Collins
OR
122.1
DR
117.2
PTS
13.7
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.4
DR
111.8
PTS
11.1
C
Brook Lopez
OR
96.0
DR
115.4
PTS
7.7
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
119.2
DR
99.8
PTS
24.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The San Antonio Spurs are favored to win (59.7% probability).
Expected starting fives — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., John Collins, Brook Lopez. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 230.94 points, indicating a game that should play at a relatively high pace with plenty of scoring. The expected spread is Home - Away = -4.57, which favors the visiting team by about 4.6 points.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
230.9
Most likely outcome: 230 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - San Antonio Spurs)
-4.6
Most likely outcome: -5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show rising power ratings over the last five games: Clippers +13.2 and Spurs +8.9, indicating upward momentum for each.
Los Angeles Clippers
1553.0
+13.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Sacramento Kings | 1553.0 | -15.4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Chicago Bulls | 1568.4 | +5.2 |
| 2026-03-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1563.2 | +11.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | New York Knicks | 1551.6 | +11.8 |
| 2026-03-07 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1539.8 | — |
San Antonio Spurs
1687.3
+8.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Charlotte Hornets | 1687.3 | +6.9 |
| 2026-03-12 | Denver Nuggets | 1680.4 | -13.8 |
| 2026-03-10 | Boston Celtics | 1694.2 | +8.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Houston Rockets | 1685.9 | +7.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1678.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Clippers
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 109 | 118 | -9 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 119 | 108 | +11 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 153 | 128 | +25 | |
| New York Knicks | 126 | 118 | +8 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 123 | 120 | +3 |
San Antonio Spurs
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 115 | 102 | +13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 131 | 136 | -5 | |
| Boston Celtics | 125 | 116 | +9 | |
| Houston Rockets | 145 | 120 | +25 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 116 | 112 | +4 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs enter off 2-1 stretches. The Clippers lost to Sacramento 109-118 but beat Chicago 119-108 and put up 153 points in a win over Minnesota 153-128, suggesting offensive outbursts are possible. The Spurs have also gone 2-1, beating Charlotte 115-102 and Boston 125-116 while dropping a close 131-136 game to Denver; they’ve balanced scoring with defensive stops in their wins.
Looking at the expected starters, the Clippers’ five average an offensive rating of 116.12, defensive rating of 117.46, and 11.62 average points made per starter, reflecting a middling defensive profile and modest scoring across the unit. The Spurs’ projected five average an offensive rating of 117.18, defensive rating of 110.12, and 17.06 average points made per starter — a stronger defensive baseline and more concentrated scoring (notably Victor Wembanyama’s 24.3 average).
Final Prediction
San Antonio’s combination of a sturdier defensive rating (110.12 vs 117.46) and higher scoring among starters gives them the edge in this matchup. Watch Victor Wembanyama’s rim protection and how well the Spurs limit John Collins and Brook Lopez early — that matchup could decide the game.
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