NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
69.4%
VS
Dallas Mavericks
Away Team
30.6%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
118.5
DR
112.2
PTS
19.8
VS
Ryan Nembhard
OR
102.1
DR
119.5
PTS
6.3
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
102.5
DR
117.1
PTS
9.0
VS
Max Christie
OR
113.9
DR
118.6
PTS
12.7
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
120.5
DR
120.9
PTS
17.1
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.2
DR
114.5
PTS
20.2
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
122.4
DR
119.6
PTS
21.9
VS
Naji Marshall
OR
116.4
DR
116.5
PTS
15.1
C
Zion Williamson
OR
124.5
DR
118.5
PTS
21.4
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
101.5
DR
113.0
PTS
13.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
I project the New Orleans Pelicans to win (69.4% probability).
Expected starting fives — New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson. Dallas Mavericks: Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 241.08, suggesting an uptempo game with plenty of scoring opportunities on both ends. The spread (Home − Away) is 8.18, giving a sizable edge to whichever team is at home; the pick favors New Orleans despite that notation.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
241.1
Most likely outcome: 241 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Dallas Mavericks)
8.2
Most likely outcome: 8 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams have positive momentum over the last five games: Pelicans +9.9, Mavericks +15.5.
New Orleans Pelicans
1426.4
+9.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Houston Rockets | 1426.4 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-11 | Toronto Raptors | 1431.7 | +12.6 |
| 2026-03-08 | Washington Wizards | 1419.1 | +8.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | Phoenix Suns | 1410.5 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Sacramento Kings | 1416.5 | — |
Dallas Mavericks
1388.1
+15.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1388.1 | +15.3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1372.8 | -5.8 |
| 2026-03-12 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1378.6 | +11.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Atlanta Hawks | 1367.3 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Toronto Raptors | 1372.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New Orleans Pelicans
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 105 | 107 | -2 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 122 | 111 | +11 | |
| Washington Wizards | 138 | 118 | +20 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 116 | 118 | -2 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 133 | 123 | +10 |
Dallas Mavericks
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 130 | 120 | +10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 105 | 138 | -33 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 120 | 112 | +8 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 112 | 124 | -12 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 92 | 122 | -30 |
Game Analysis
New Orleans is 2-1 in its last three, with a close 105-107 loss to Houston sandwiched between wins of 122-111 and 138-118 — showing the Pelicans can both score in bunches and bounce back quickly. Dallas is also 2-1, with a 130-120 win, a 105-138 blowout loss, and a 120-112 win, which signals higher variance on the Mavericks’ end. Recent results point to New Orleans being a steadier offensive unit lately.
Looking at the expected starters, New Orleans carries a clear offensive edge: their starting five average offensive rating is 117.68, defensive rating 117.66, and average points made 17.84. Dallas’ starting five averages a 108.42 offensive rating, 116.42 defensive rating, and 13.64 points made. That offensive gap (and higher scoring from New Orleans’ starters) should be decisive unless Dallas’ slightly better team defense can contain the Pelicans’ weapons.
Final Prediction
New Orleans’ superior starting-five offense and recent scoring bursts give them the edge. Key factor to watch: whether Dallas can slow down Zion, Trey Murphy III and Saddiq Bey enough to negate New Orleans’ offensive advantage.
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