NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Sacramento Kings
Home Team
21.1%
VS
San Antonio Spurs
Away Team
78.9%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Russell Westbrook
OR
102.3
DR
119.7
PTS
15.4
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.9
DR
113.3
PTS
19.1
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
91.1
DR
121.0
PTS
7.6
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
115.8
DR
111.7
PTS
16.7
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
122.3
DR
122.7
PTS
18.8
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.6
DR
114.4
PTS
14.3
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.5
DR
117.9
PTS
9.2
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.0
DR
111.8
PTS
11.1
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
112.5
DR
119.9
PTS
11.1
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
118.9
DR
99.9
PTS
24.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (78.9% probability).
Expected starting five — Sacramento Kings: Russell Westbrook, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects 233.71 combined points, suggesting an above-average scoring game and a fairly open pace. The spread (Home - Away) of -12.97 implies roughly a 13-point edge to the away team; since the Spurs are the projected winner, that advantage falls squarely in their favor.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
233.7
Most likely outcome: 233 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - San Antonio Spurs)
-13.0
Most likely outcome: -13 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Sacramento's power rating has climbed noticeably (+30.2 over five games), while San Antonio shows a smaller upward trend (+7.9), so both are rising but Sacramento's recent momentum is steeper.
Sacramento Kings
1351.5
+30.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Utah Jazz | 1351.5 | +9.7 |
| 2026-03-14 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1341.8 | +15.4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Charlotte Hornets | 1326.4 | -4.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Indiana Pacers | 1330.7 | +9.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chicago Bulls | 1321.3 | — |
San Antonio Spurs
1693.8
+7.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1693.8 | +6.5 |
| 2026-03-14 | Charlotte Hornets | 1687.3 | +6.9 |
| 2026-03-12 | Denver Nuggets | 1680.4 | -13.8 |
| 2026-03-10 | Boston Celtics | 1694.2 | +8.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Houston Rockets | 1685.9 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Sacramento Kings
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 116 | 111 | +5 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 118 | 109 | +9 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 109 | 117 | -8 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 114 | 109 | +5 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 126 | 110 | +16 |
San Antonio Spurs
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 119 | 115 | +4 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 115 | 102 | +13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 131 | 136 | -5 | |
| Boston Celtics | 125 | 116 | +9 | |
| Houston Rockets | 145 | 120 | +25 |
Game Analysis
Both teams enter with 2-1 records over their last three: Sacramento beat Utah 116-111 and the Clippers 118-109 before losing 109-117 to Charlotte; San Antonio beat the Clippers 119-115 and Charlotte 115-102, with a high-scoring 131-136 loss to Denver. That pattern points to Spurs playing cleaner defense overall in their wins, while Sacramento has been susceptible to quicker offensive teams.
Looking strictly at the starters, Sacramento’s five average offensive rating is 108.54, defensive rating 120.24, and average points made per starter 12.42. San Antonio’s starters average offensive rating 117.44, defensive rating 110.22, and average points made 17.10. San Antonio holds clear advantages across both ratings and scoring from the starting five; Victor Wembanyama’s defensive rating of 99.9 and 24.3 average points made stand out as a major factor, while DeMar DeRozan (offensive rating 122.3, 18.8 points) is Sacramento’s primary counter.
Final Prediction
San Antonio’s higher offensive and lower defensive ratings among starters, plus greater scoring from their five, explain the projected 78.9% edge. Key factor to watch: how well Sacramento can generate shots against Wembanyama and whether their starters can slow the Spurs’ transition scoring.
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