NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Washington Wizards
Home Team
25.4%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
74.6%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Bub Carrington
OR
105.4
DR
124.3
PTS
9.7
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.2
DR
110.7
PTS
24.8
SG
Tre Johnson
OR
105.0
DR
123.6
PTS
12.4
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
112.9
DR
105.4
PTS
10.1
SF
Justin Champagnie
OR
119.4
DR
120.2
PTS
8.2
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.4
DR
115.4
PTS
11.9
PF
Will Riley
OR
105.6
DR
124.2
PTS
8.6
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
117.2
DR
112.1
PTS
13.3
C
Julian Reese
OR
108.0
DR
124.4
PTS
9.2
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
131.1
DR
108.1
PTS
18.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are the pick (74.6% chance to win).
Expected starting five — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Justin Champagnie, Will Riley, Julian Reese. Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 234.05 points, indicating this should be a high-scoring, uptempo game with both teams likely trading baskets. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -14.18, meaning the away team is favored by about 14.2 points — a sizable advantage that points to Detroit controlling the contest.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
234.1
Most likely outcome: 234 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Detroit Pistons)
-14.2
Most likely outcome: -15 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Washington’s rating is falling while Detroit’s is essentially stable-to-rising over the recent stretch.
Washington Wizards
1309.8
-17.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Golden State Warriors | 1309.8 | -6.8 |
| 2026-03-14 | Boston Celtics | 1316.6 | -2.7 |
| 2026-03-12 | Orlando Magic | 1319.3 | -3.5 |
| 2026-03-10 | Miami Heat | 1322.8 | -4.2 |
| 2026-03-08 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1327.0 | — |
Detroit Pistons
1626.3
+0.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Toronto Raptors | 1626.3 | -13.4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1639.7 | +3.1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1636.6 | +6.6 |
| 2026-03-10 | Brooklyn Nets | 1630.0 | +4.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Miami Heat | 1625.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 117 | 125 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 111 | -11 | |
| Orlando Magic | 131 | 136 | -5 | |
| Miami Heat | 129 | 150 | -21 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 138 | -20 |
Detroit Pistons
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 108 | 119 | -11 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 126 | 110 | +16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 131 | 109 | +22 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 138 | 100 | +38 | |
| Miami Heat | 110 | 121 | -11 |
Game Analysis
Washington has dropped three straight games, losing 117-125, 100-111 and 131-136; those results show they can score (131 and 117) but have surrendered 125, 111 and 136 points, underlining defensive issues. Detroit is 2-1 over the same span, coming off two big wins — 126-110 and 131-109 — before a 108-119 loss, suggesting they’ve recently been efficient on offense and capable of pushing a fast pace.
Looking at the projected starters, Washington’s five average an offensive rating of 108.68, a defensive rating of 123.34 and about 9.62 points each, so they lean toward below-average efficiency and struggle to stop opponents. Detroit’s projected five average an offensive rating of 121.16, a defensive rating of 110.34 and about 15.76 points each, reflecting a clear edge on both ends led by Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. That gap in efficiency and scoring balance explains the expected blowout margin.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s higher offensive ceiling and markedly better defensive numbers give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how well Washington can slow Cade Cunningham and limit Jalen Duren’s touches — that matchup battle will likely decide whether this stays close or becomes a rout.
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