NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Chicago Bulls

Home Team
46.4%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
53.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Josh Giddey
OR
112.7
DR
116.0
PTS
17.9
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.5
DR
115.0
PTS
17.1
SG
Tre Jones
OR
129.5
DR
117.5
PTS
12.9
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.7
DR
114.4
PTS
21.9
SF
Leonard Miller
OR
110.7
DR
114.8
PTS
8.3
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.5
DR
114.1
PTS
19.0
PF
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.7
DR
116.7
PTS
16.1
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.3
DR
110.0
PTS
18.7
C
Jalen Smith
OR
119.1
DR
115.9
PTS
10.3
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.6
DR
109.8
PTS
10.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Toronto Raptors are the pick to win (53.6% probability). Expected starting five — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Leonard Miller, Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith. Expected starting five — Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 238.25 points, suggesting an up-tempo game with plenty of scoring opportunities. The expected spread (Home - Away) of -7.2 indicates the away team is favored by about 7.2 points, giving a clear edge to the road side — consistent with the Raptors being selected.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 238.2 Most likely outcome: 238 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Toronto Raptors) -7.2 Most likely outcome: -8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams have been trending upward over the last five games, with Chicago rising more sharply (+12.3) and Toronto posting a modest gain (+2.7).

Chicago Bulls

1409.5 +12.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 Memphis Grizzlies 1409.5 +10.0
2026-03-13 Los Angeles Clippers 1399.5 -5.2
2026-03-12 Los Angeles Lakers 1404.7 -5.4
2026-03-10 Golden State Warriors 1410.1 +12.9
2026-03-08 Sacramento Kings 1397.2 —

Toronto Raptors

1534.1 +2.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-15 Detroit Pistons 1534.1 +13.5
2026-03-13 Phoenix Suns 1520.6 +11.2
2026-03-11 New Orleans Pelicans 1509.4 -12.7
2026-03-10 Houston Rockets 1522.1 -9.3
2026-03-08 Dallas Mavericks 1531.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Chicago Bulls

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 132 107 +25
Los Angeles Clippers 108 119 -11
Los Angeles Lakers 130 142 -12
Golden State Warriors 130 124 +6
Sacramento Kings 110 126 -16

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 119 108 +11
Phoenix Suns 122 115 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 111 122 -11
Houston Rockets 99 113 -14
Dallas Mavericks 122 92 +30

Game Analysis

Chicago is 1-2 over the last three, coming off a big 132-107 win but also recent defensive lapses in losses to the Clippers and Lakers (allowing 119 and 142). The Bulls are producing offense in bursts—they averaged 123.3 points in those three games but have given up 122.7, so consistency on defense is the concern. Tre Jones stands out with a 129.5 offensive rating, while Josh Giddey is the primary scoring option at 17.9 points per game. Toronto is 2-1 in the last three, beating Detroit and Phoenix before a loss to New Orleans, averaging 117.3 points while allowing 115.0. The Raptors’ projected starting five combines offensive punch and steadier defense: their starters average an offensive rating of 117.52 and a defensive rating of 112.66, with an average 17.36 points made per starter. Jakob Poeltl’s 127.6 offensive rating and Scottie Barnes’ 110.0 defensive rating give Toronto balanced advantages inside and on the glass.

Final Prediction

Toronto’s combination of slightly better two-way efficiency among starters and more consistent recent results gives them the edge. Watch the Raptors’ interior matchups (Poeltl vs. Bulls’ frontcourt) — that battle could determine whether the road favorite covers the 7.2-point spread.

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