NBA 2025-2026: Dallas Mavericks vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Dallas Mavericks

Home Team
39.1%
VS

Atlanta Hawks

Away Team
60.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Max Christie
OR
114.6
DR
118.5
PTS
12.7
VS
CJ McCollum
OR
109.3
DR
115.4
PTS
18.2
SG
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.9
DR
114.5
PTS
20.2
VS
Dyson Daniels
OR
116.8
DR
112.7
PTS
11.5
SF
Naji Marshall
OR
116.7
DR
116.6
PTS
15.3
VS
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
112.9
DR
116.7
PTS
20.3
PF
P.J. Washington
OR
102.3
DR
113.1
PTS
14.0
VS
Jalen Johnson
OR
117.0
DR
110.6
PTS
23.0
C
Daniel Gafford
OR
118.9
DR
111.4
PTS
9.0
VS
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
115.9
DR
112.3
PTS
15.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Atlanta Hawks, 60.9% probability to win. Expected starting fives — Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford. Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 235.71 points, signaling a fast, offense-friendly game with both teams likely to run and trade buckets. The expected spread is -4.74 (home − away), which implies the road team holds roughly a 4.7-point edge coming into this matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 235.7 Most likely outcome: 235 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Atlanta Hawks) -4.7 Most likely outcome: -5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Dallas’ power rating has ticked up modestly over the last five games, while Atlanta’s rating has climbed sharply.

Dallas Mavericks

1379.2 +11.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 New Orleans Pelicans 1379.2 -8.9
2026-03-15 Cleveland Cavaliers 1388.1 +15.3
2026-03-13 Cleveland Cavaliers 1372.8 -5.8
2026-03-12 Memphis Grizzlies 1378.6 +11.3
2026-03-10 Atlanta Hawks 1367.3 —

Atlanta Hawks

1553.9 +28.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 Orlando Magic 1553.9 +11.1
2026-03-14 Milwaukee Bucks 1542.8 +7.4
2026-03-12 Brooklyn Nets 1535.4 +4.7
2026-03-10 Dallas Mavericks 1530.7 +5.3
2026-03-07 Philadelphia 76ers 1525.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Dallas Mavericks

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 111 129 -18
Cleveland Cavaliers 130 120 +10
Cleveland Cavaliers 105 138 -33
Memphis Grizzlies 120 112 +8
Atlanta Hawks 112 124 -12

Atlanta Hawks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 124 112 +12
Milwaukee Bucks 122 99 +23
Brooklyn Nets 108 97 +11
Dallas Mavericks 124 112 +12
Philadelphia 76ers 125 116 +9

Game Analysis

Dallas is 1-2 over the last three, with a 130-120 win sandwiched between two heavy defeats (111-129 and 105-138). Those losses exposed defensive holes—Dallas conceded 129 and 138 points in those games—so consistency on that end will be critical. Atlanta arrives hotter, 3-0 with convincing wins (124-112, 122-99, 108-97) and has tightened its defense while getting steady scoring from its starters. Looking at the starting fives, Dallas’ group averages an offensive rating of 112.1, defensive rating of 114.8, and 14.2 points made per starter; Atlanta’s starters average a 114.4 offensive rating, 113.5 defensive rating, and 17.8 points made per starter. Atlanta’s starting unit brings a slight edge in scoring and a comparable defensive profile, while Daniel Gafford (offensive rating 118.9) and Dallas’ role scorers will need to counter Jalen Johnson (117.0 offensive rating, 23.0 average) and the Hawks’ balanced frontline.

Final Prediction

Atlanta’s recent form, rising power rating, and marginally stronger starting-five production give them the edge. Watch whether Dallas can stop the bleeding on defense and control the paint matchup—if they can’t, Atlanta’s offense should pull away.

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