NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Indiana Pacers

Home Team
29.4%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
70.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Andrew Nembhard
OR
112.7
DR
122.2
PTS
17.0
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.5
DR
116.9
PTS
16.2
SG
Aaron Nesmith
OR
106.3
DR
120.8
PTS
13.6
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
115.6
DR
116.3
PTS
24.0
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
101.2
DR
118.3
PTS
11.3
VS
Jerami Grant
OR
117.0
DR
119.1
PTS
18.7
PF
Kobe Brown
OR
115.2
DR
125.6
PTS
8.6
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
110.2
DR
117.4
PTS
12.7
C
Ivica Zubac
OR
119.8
DR
126.5
PTS
10.0
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.6
DR
111.5
PTS
12.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are projected to win (70.6% probability). Expected starting five — Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Kobe Brown, Ivica Zubac. Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 236.57 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring, up-tempo game rather than a grind-it-out defensive slog. The expected spread is -8.17 (home minus away), favoring Portland by just over eight points and implying a clear home-court advantage for the Blazers.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 236.6 Most likely outcome: 236 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Portland Trail Blazers) -8.2 Most likely outcome: -9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Indiana’s rating trend is falling over the last five games while Portland’s has been relatively stable with only a slight dip.

Indiana Pacers

1296.0 -16.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 New York Knicks 1296.0 -2.7
2026-03-15 Milwaukee Bucks 1298.7 -6.4
2026-03-13 New York Knicks 1305.1 -3.3
2026-03-12 Phoenix Suns 1308.4 -4.3
2026-03-10 Sacramento Kings 1312.7 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1481.8 -3.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 Brooklyn Nets 1481.8 +7.5
2026-03-15 Philadelphia 76ers 1474.3 -9.1
2026-03-13 Utah Jazz 1483.4 +5.9
2026-03-10 Charlotte Hornets 1477.5 -8.1
2026-03-08 Indiana Pacers 1485.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Indiana Pacers

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 110 136 -26
Milwaukee Bucks 123 134 -11
New York Knicks 92 101 -9
Phoenix Suns 108 123 -15
Sacramento Kings 109 114 -5

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 114 95 +19
Philadelphia 76ers 103 109 -6
Utah Jazz 124 114 +10
Charlotte Hornets 101 103 -2
Indiana Pacers 131 111 +20

Game Analysis

Indiana arrives on a three-game losing streak, giving up 136 and 134 points in their two most recent defeats and scoring as few as 92 in the most recent loss — signs of both offensive inconsistency and defensive lapses. Portland is 2-1 across its last three, with a dominant 114-95 win over Brooklyn and an efficient 124-point performance against Utah, showing they can both score in volume and defend when engaged. Looking at the expected starting fives, Portland’s group averages an offensive rating of 117.78 and a defensive rating of 116.24, with an average 16.72 points made per starter; Indiana’s five average a 111.04 offensive rating, 122.68 defensive rating, and 12.10 points made per starter. Portland’s higher offensive efficiency and better defensive profile among starters — plus Deni Avdija’s 24.0 scoring average and Donovan Clingan’s 130.6 offensive rating — tilt matchup dynamics in the Blazers’ favor.

Final Prediction

Portland’s edge comes from more consistent two-way production among its starters and recent positive results; the spread reflects that gap. Watch how Indiana defends the paint and whether Portland’s primary scorers (Avdija, Holiday, Clingan) can exploit the interior mismatches.

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