NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
42.0%
VS

Los Angeles Clippers

Away Team
58.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
118.5
DR
112.2
PTS
19.8
VS
Darius Garland
OR
115.6
DR
121.3
PTS
19.9
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
102.8
DR
116.9
PTS
9.0
VS
Kris Dunn
OR
118.3
DR
116.4
PTS
7.7
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
120.4
DR
120.6
PTS
17.2
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
124.8
DR
112.5
PTS
28.3
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
122.2
DR
119.2
PTS
21.9
VS
John Collins
OR
122.2
DR
117.2
PTS
13.7
C
Zion Williamson
OR
125.0
DR
118.3
PTS
21.5
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
97.1
DR
115.5
PTS
7.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Los Angeles Clippers are projected to win (58.0% probability). Expected starting fives — New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson. Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of about 243.25 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and an up-tempo game environment. The expected spread is Home - Away = -2.02, meaning the Clippers are a slim ~2-point favorite on the road.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 243.2 Most likely outcome: 243 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Los Angeles Clippers) -2.0 Most likely outcome: -3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New Orleans’ Elo has been rising over the last five games while Los Angeles’ Elo has dipped slightly.

New Orleans Pelicans

1435.2 +24.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 Dallas Mavericks 1435.2 +8.8
2026-03-13 Houston Rockets 1426.4 -5.3
2026-03-11 Toronto Raptors 1431.7 +12.6
2026-03-08 Washington Wizards 1419.1 +8.6
2026-03-06 Phoenix Suns 1410.5 —

Los Angeles Clippers

1546.5 -5.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 San Antonio Spurs 1546.5 -6.5
2026-03-14 Sacramento Kings 1553.0 -15.4
2026-03-13 Chicago Bulls 1568.4 +5.2
2026-03-11 Minnesota Timberwolves 1563.2 +11.6
2026-03-09 New York Knicks 1551.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New Orleans Pelicans

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 129 111 +18
Houston Rockets 105 107 -2
Toronto Raptors 122 111 +11
Washington Wizards 138 118 +20
Phoenix Suns 116 118 -2

Los Angeles Clippers

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 115 119 -4
Sacramento Kings 109 118 -9
Chicago Bulls 119 108 +11
Minnesota Timberwolves 153 128 +25
New York Knicks 126 118 +8

Game Analysis

New Orleans arrives 2-1 over the last three, beating Dallas 129-111 and Toronto 122-111 around a one-point loss to Houston (105-107). Those wins underline the Pelicans’ ability to put up points in bursts. Los Angeles is 1-2 in its last three, with a solid 119-108 win over Chicago tempered by losses to Sacramento (109-118) and San Antonio (115-119), a sign of inconsistency on both ends. Looking at the starting fives, New Orleans’ starters average an offensive rating of about 117.8 and a defensive rating near 117.4, with combined points made roughly 89.4 (about 17.9 per starter). The Clippers’ starters average an offensive rating of about 115.6 and a defensive rating near 116.6, with combined points made roughly 77.2 (about 15.4 per starter). Pelicans’ starting five offers a slight edge in scoring punch, while the Clippers hinge on Kawhi Leonard’s 28.3 scoring presence and mix of veteran defense.

Final Prediction

The Clippers get the nod thanks to a marginal edge implied by the spread and a projected 58% chance to win despite recent uneven form. Key factor to watch: how Los Angeles contains New Orleans’ high-scoring starters (especially Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson) while Kawhi Leonard dictates the offensive tempo.

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