NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Chicago Bulls

Home Team
39.4%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
60.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Josh Giddey
OR
111.7
DR
116.4
PTS
17.7
VS
James Harden
OR
125.9
DR
117.1
PTS
19.9
SG
Tre Jones
OR
128.5
DR
117.7
PTS
12.8
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
121.1
DR
115.0
PTS
28.0
SF
Leonard Miller
OR
112.9
DR
116.3
PTS
8.6
VS
Sam Merrill
OR
126.8
DR
118.8
PTS
12.8
PF
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.6
DR
116.8
PTS
16.2
VS
Dean Wade
OR
128.5
DR
114.4
PTS
6.0
C
Jalen Smith
OR
119.0
DR
116.2
PTS
10.3
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
117.7
DR
111.2
PTS
18.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (60.6% probability). Expected starting five — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Leonard Miller, Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 245.45 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a quicker pace than an average NBA contest. The expected spread is -7.36 (home − away), which implies roughly a 7.4-point advantage for the Cavaliers and positions them as a comfortable favorite to cover.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 245.4 Most likely outcome: 246 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Cleveland Cavaliers) -7.4 Most likely outcome: -8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show a downward trend in recent elo: Chicago down modestly and Cleveland down a bit more over the last five games.

Chicago Bulls

1401.1 -9.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Toronto Raptors 1401.1 -8.4
2026-03-16 Memphis Grizzlies 1409.5 +10.0
2026-03-13 Los Angeles Clippers 1399.5 -5.2
2026-03-12 Los Angeles Lakers 1404.7 -5.4
2026-03-10 Golden State Warriors 1410.1 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1589.1 -14.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Milwaukee Bucks 1589.1 +6.3
2026-03-15 Dallas Mavericks 1582.8 -15.3
2026-03-13 Dallas Mavericks 1598.1 +5.8
2026-03-11 Orlando Magic 1592.3 -11.1
2026-03-09 Philadelphia 76ers 1603.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Chicago Bulls

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 109 139 -30
Memphis Grizzlies 132 107 +25
Los Angeles Clippers 108 119 -11
Los Angeles Lakers 130 142 -12
Golden State Warriors 130 124 +6

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 123 116 +7
Dallas Mavericks 120 130 -10
Dallas Mavericks 138 105 +33
Orlando Magic 122 128 -6
Philadelphia 76ers 115 101 +14

Game Analysis

Chicago is 1-2 in their last three: a heavy 109-139 loss to Toronto, a bounce-back 132-107 win over Memphis, and a 108-119 loss to the Clippers. Those results point to inconsistency, with the defense giving up 139 in the worst outing but the offense capable of 132. Cleveland is 2-1 over the same span, beating Milwaukee 123-116, splitting two games with Dallas (loss 120-130, win 138-105), showing they can both score in bunches and close games against quality opponents. Looking at the starters, Chicago’s five average an offensive rating of 116.34, defensive rating of 116.68, and 13.12 points per starter. Cleveland’s projected starters average a 124.0 offensive rating, 115.3 defensive rating, and 16.96 points per starter. That gap in offensive efficiency and scoring from the starting five favors Cleveland dictating the tempo and producing more reliable offense.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s clear edge in starting-five offensive output and a deeper scoring floor explains the pick. Key factor to watch: whether Chicago can slow Donovan Mitchell and limit Cleveland’s transition opportunities — if they can’t, the Cavs should pull away.

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