NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
66.9%
VS

Orlando Magic

Away Team
33.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
114.2
DR
114.2
PTS
19.5
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
108.8
DR
108.3
PTS
13.9
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
110.6
DR
112.7
PTS
20.3
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
120.2
DR
116.5
PTS
20.5
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
126.9
DR
116.5
PTS
19.3
VS
Tristan Da Silva
OR
104.6
DR
114.2
PTS
9.6
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
118.7
DR
115.6
PTS
17.5
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
112.1
DR
114.3
PTS
22.4
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.7
DR
111.7
PTS
8.1
VS
Goga Bitadze
OR
149.8
DR
108.3
PTS
5.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets are the pick to win — probability 66.9%. Expected starting fives: Charlotte — LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté. Orlando — Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Tristan Da Silva, Paolo Banchero, Goga Bitadze.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined 228.96 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a brisk pace. The expected spread is 4.65 points in favor of the home team, giving the home side a clear but not insurmountable edge.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.0 Most likely outcome: 228 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Orlando Magic) 4.7 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Charlotte’s rating is on the rise (+16.8 over five games) while Orlando’s has dipped slightly (-3.2 over five games).

Charlotte Hornets

1573.7 +16.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Miami Heat 1573.7 +11.3
2026-03-14 San Antonio Spurs 1562.4 -6.8
2026-03-11 Sacramento Kings 1569.2 +4.2
2026-03-10 Portland Trail Blazers 1565.0 +8.1
2026-03-08 Phoenix Suns 1556.9 —

Orlando Magic

1548.0 -3.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Oklahoma City Thunder 1548.0 -6.4
2026-03-16 Atlanta Hawks 1554.4 -11.1
2026-03-14 Miami Heat 1565.5 +10.8
2026-03-12 Washington Wizards 1554.7 +3.5
2026-03-11 Cleveland Cavaliers 1551.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 136 106 +30
San Antonio Spurs 102 115 -13
Sacramento Kings 117 109 +8
Portland Trail Blazers 103 101 +2
Phoenix Suns 99 111 -12

Orlando Magic

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 108 113 -5
Atlanta Hawks 112 124 -12
Miami Heat 121 117 +4
Washington Wizards 136 131 +5
Cleveland Cavaliers 128 122 +6

Game Analysis

Charlotte is 2-1 in its last three with a dominant 136-106 win over Miami and a 117-109 victory over Sacramento, punctuated by a 102-115 loss to San Antonio — showing they can score in bunches but have had defensive lapses. Orlando is 1-2 over the same span, dropping 108-113 to OKC and 112-124 to Atlanta before a 121-117 win over Miami, suggesting streakiness and inconsistency on the defensive end. Looking at the projected starters, Charlotte’s five average an offensive rating of 121.4, defensive rating of 114.1, and 16.9 points made per starter. Orlando’s five average an offensive rating of 119.1, defensive rating of 112.3, and 14.4 points made per starter. That gap gives Charlotte a modest offensive advantage from the starting unit, while Orlando’s slightly better team defense rating could keep it competitive.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s upward momentum and a higher scoring profile among its starters give it the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Orlando’s defense (112.3 starter DRtg) can slow Charlotte’s efficient starters (121.4 starter ORtg) or if the Hornets will impose their pace and scoring.

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