NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Sacramento Kings

Home Team
41.6%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
58.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Russell Westbrook
OR
102.7
DR
120.0
PTS
15.2
VS
Quentin Grimes
OR
114.3
DR
117.8
PTS
13.5
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
91.4
DR
121.2
PTS
7.8
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
111.2
DR
116.0
PTS
15.3
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.4
DR
122.9
PTS
18.6
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
123.6
DR
116.0
PTS
8.2
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.1
DR
118.2
PTS
9.2
VS
Justin Edwards
OR
98.3
DR
117.0
PTS
5.7
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
112.5
DR
120.1
PTS
11.4
VS
Adem Bona
OR
118.6
DR
114.0
PTS
4.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia 76ers are projected to win (58.4% probability). Expected starting five — Sacramento Kings: Russell Westbrook, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud; Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 231.3 points, signaling a relatively high-scoring game and a fairly uptempo matchup. The expected spread is Home - Away = -5.27, which gives about a 5.3-point edge to the visiting side.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.3 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Philadelphia 76ers) -5.3 Most likely outcome: -6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Sacramento’s power rating has ticked up over the last five games (+17.7), while Philadelphia’s has dipped slightly (-2.1).

Sacramento Kings

1348.4 +17.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 San Antonio Spurs 1348.4 -3.1
2026-03-15 Utah Jazz 1351.5 +9.7
2026-03-14 Los Angeles Clippers 1341.8 +15.4
2026-03-11 Charlotte Hornets 1326.4 -4.3
2026-03-10 Indiana Pacers 1330.7 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1501.2 -2.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Denver Nuggets 1501.2 -9.6
2026-03-15 Portland Trail Blazers 1510.8 +9.1
2026-03-14 Brooklyn Nets 1501.7 +5.0
2026-03-12 Detroit Pistons 1496.7 -6.6
2026-03-10 Memphis Grizzlies 1503.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 104 132 -28
Utah Jazz 116 111 +5
Los Angeles Clippers 118 109 +9
Charlotte Hornets 109 117 -8
Indiana Pacers 114 109 +5

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 96 124 -28
Portland Trail Blazers 109 103 +6
Brooklyn Nets 104 97 +7
Detroit Pistons 109 131 -22
Memphis Grizzlies 139 129 +10

Game Analysis

Both teams enter off a heavy loss sandwiched between two wins: Sacramento beat Utah 116-111 and the Clippers 118-109 before a 104-132 loss to San Antonio, while Philadelphia beat Portland 109-103 and Brooklyn 104-97 before a 96-124 loss to Denver. Those recent blowouts suggest defensive lapses on both ends that could swing the outcome depending on adjustments. Looking at the starting fives, Sacramento’s group averages an offensive rating of 108.42, defensive rating of 120.48, and 12.44 points made per starter; Philadelphia’s starters average an offensive rating of 113.20, defensive rating of 116.16, and 9.48 points made per starter. Philly’s starting five profile is more efficient on both ends, while Sacramento leans on higher per-starter scoring from players like DeMar DeRozan.

Final Prediction

Philadelphia’s edge comes from more efficient starting units on offense and defense and the projected ~5.3-point spread in their favor. Watch how the 76ers contain DeRozan and whether Sacramento can shore up a defense that’s been vulnerable in recent games.

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