NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
70.5%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
29.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
123.7
DR
119.6
PTS
25.1
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.5
DR
114.8
PTS
17.0
SG
Christian Braun
OR
122.6
DR
116.9
PTS
11.6
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
110.0
DR
114.3
PTS
21.9
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
119.3
DR
114.1
PTS
16.8
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.7
DR
113.8
PTS
19.0
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
121.9
DR
118.5
PTS
11.8
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.5
DR
109.8
PTS
18.7
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.1
DR
112.2
PTS
28.2
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.8
DR
109.3
PTS
10.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets are the projected winner (70.5% probability). Expected starting five — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić. Toronto: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 233.18 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game with an open pace and offensive success for both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 6.57, effectively giving Denver about a 6.6-point edge in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.2 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Toronto Raptors) 6.6 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s rating has been essentially flat over the last five games while Toronto’s has risen steadily.

Denver Nuggets

1551.3 -0.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Memphis Grizzlies 1551.3 -14.2
2026-03-17 Philadelphia 76ers 1565.5 +9.6
2026-03-14 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.9 -9.4
2026-03-12 San Antonio Spurs 1565.3 +13.8
2026-03-11 Houston Rockets 1551.5 —

Toronto Raptors

1542.4 +20.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Chicago Bulls 1542.4 +8.3
2026-03-15 Detroit Pistons 1534.1 +13.5
2026-03-13 Phoenix Suns 1520.6 +11.2
2026-03-11 New Orleans Pelicans 1509.4 -12.7
2026-03-10 Houston Rockets 1522.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
L W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 118 125 -7
Philadelphia 76ers 124 96 +28
Los Angeles Lakers 125 127 -2
San Antonio Spurs 136 131 +5
Houston Rockets 129 93 +36

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 139 109 +30
Detroit Pistons 119 108 +11
Phoenix Suns 122 115 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 111 122 -11
Houston Rockets 99 113 -14

Game Analysis

Denver is 1-2 over the last three, splitting a close 125-127 loss to the Lakers and a 118-125 loss to Memphis around a dominant 124-96 win over Philadelphia; that shows they can explode offensively but also be vulnerable in close finishes. Toronto arrives on a three-game win run (139-109 vs Chicago, 119-108 vs Detroit, 122-115 vs Phoenix) and looks hot on offense right now, building momentum heading into this matchup. The projected Denver starting five averages an offensive rating of 124.5, defensive rating of 116.3, and 18.7 points made per starter; Nikola Jokić (offensive rating 135.1) is the clear engine. Toronto’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 117.7, defensive rating of 112.4, and 17.4 points made per starter, with Jakob Poeltl (offensive rating 127.8) and Scottie Barnes (defensive rating 109.8) anchoring the interior. Those differences — Denver’s superior offensive ceiling and Jokić’s elite play — are decisive.

Final Prediction

Denver’s higher team offensive rating and Nikola Jokić’s outsize impact give them the edge in this matchup. Watch the Jokić–Poeltl matchup and how Denver defends Toronto’s recent hot shooting; that will likely determine the final margin.

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