NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
62.7%
VS

Atlanta Hawks

Away Team
37.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Amen Thompson
OR
122.7
DR
114.2
PTS
17.9
VS
CJ McCollum
OR
110.7
DR
115.4
PTS
18.4
SG
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
123.8
DR
114.8
PTS
15.5
VS
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.2
DR
112.7
PTS
11.6
SF
Kevin Durant
OR
123.9
DR
115.1
PTS
25.7
VS
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
113.5
DR
116.6
PTS
20.3
PF
Tari Eason
OR
110.0
DR
112.2
PTS
10.5
VS
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.7
DR
110.6
PTS
22.9
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
114.0
DR
112.0
PTS
20.3
VS
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.0
DR
112.4
PTS
15.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets to win (62.7% probability). Expected starting five — Houston: Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Şengün. Atlanta: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined score is 231.29, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a quicker pace than a typical defensive slugfest. The expected spread (Home - Away) is +4.88 in favor of the home team, meaning the Hawks would be given a roughly 5-point edge on paper despite the Rockets being the predicted winner at 62.7%.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.3 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Atlanta Hawks) 4.9 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Houston’s power rating has fallen by 29.6 over five games while Atlanta’s has risen by 29.3, so Houston is trending down as Atlanta is trending up.

Houston Rockets

1544.9 -29.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Los Angeles Lakers 1544.9 -10.1
2026-03-16 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.0 -10.9
2026-03-13 New Orleans Pelicans 1565.9 +5.4
2026-03-11 Denver Nuggets 1560.5 -14.0
2026-03-10 Toronto Raptors 1574.5 —

Atlanta Hawks

1560.0 +29.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Dallas Mavericks 1560.0 +6.1
2026-03-16 Orlando Magic 1553.9 +11.1
2026-03-14 Milwaukee Bucks 1542.8 +7.4
2026-03-12 Brooklyn Nets 1535.4 +4.7
2026-03-10 Dallas Mavericks 1530.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 116 124 -8
Los Angeles Lakers 92 100 -8
New Orleans Pelicans 107 105 +2
Denver Nuggets 93 129 -36
Toronto Raptors 113 99 +14

Atlanta Hawks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 135 120 +15
Orlando Magic 124 112 +12
Milwaukee Bucks 122 99 +23
Brooklyn Nets 108 97 +11
Dallas Mavericks 124 112 +12

Game Analysis

Houston enters this one 1-2 over the last three games, dropping two to the Lakers (116-124, 92-100) and eking out a 107-105 win over New Orleans. Those results show inconsistency: the offense can move the ball, but protection at both ends has been uneven. Atlanta is on a three-game winning streak — wins of 135-120, 124-112 and 122-99 — and has been firing on all cylinders offensively while building clear momentum. Looking at the expected starters, Houston’s five average an offensive rating of 118.88, defensive rating of 113.66 and 17.98 points made per player; Atlanta’s five average an offensive rating of 114.82, defensive rating of 113.54 and 17.80 points made per player. That edge in offensive rating plus high-end scoring from Kevin Durant (25.7) and Alperen Şengün (20.3) gives Houston a scoring advantage, while Atlanta’s recent balanced attack led by Jalen Johnson (22.9) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.3) makes them difficult to slow.

Final Prediction

The Rockets get the nod because their starting unit carries a higher offensive profile and top scorers who can tilt a single game. Key factor to watch: can Atlanta’s hot offense disrupt Houston’s spacing and contain Durant and Şengün, or will Houston’s scoring punch be the difference?

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