NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Atlanta Hawks

Home Team
69.9%
VS

Golden State Warriors

Away Team
30.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
CJ McCollum
OR
110.7
DR
115.4
PTS
18.4
VS
De'Anthony Melton
OR
99.1
DR
113.3
PTS
13.2
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
116.1
DR
112.8
PTS
11.5
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.1
DR
114.9
PTS
13.0
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
113.6
DR
116.7
PTS
20.4
VS
Will Richard
OR
112.3
DR
114.8
PTS
6.8
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.2
DR
110.8
PTS
22.7
VS
Draymond Green
OR
102.0
DR
114.1
PTS
8.4
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
115.4
DR
112.3
PTS
15.6
VS
Gui Santos
OR
116.1
DR
113.9
PTS
8.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Atlanta Hawks are projected to win (69.9% probability). Expected starting fives — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Draymond Green, Gui Santos.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 232.93 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game and a fairly up-tempo pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 11.29 points in favor of the home team, giving the home side a sizable edge and aligning with Atlanta as the projected favorite.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.9 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - Golden State Warriors) 11.3 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Atlanta’s rating has risen by +12.8 over five games while Golden State’s has fallen by -9.5, showing clear momentum for the Hawks and a slide for the Warriors.

Atlanta Hawks

1548.2 +12.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Houston Rockets 1548.2 -11.8
2026-03-18 Dallas Mavericks 1560.0 +6.1
2026-03-16 Orlando Magic 1553.9 +11.1
2026-03-14 Milwaukee Bucks 1542.8 +7.4
2026-03-12 Brooklyn Nets 1535.4 —

Golden State Warriors

1454.2 -9.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Detroit Pistons 1454.2 -5.0
2026-03-18 Boston Celtics 1459.2 -5.8
2026-03-16 Washington Wizards 1465.0 +6.8
2026-03-15 New York Knicks 1458.2 -5.5
2026-03-13 Minnesota Timberwolves 1463.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Atlanta Hawks

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 95 117 -22
Dallas Mavericks 135 120 +15
Orlando Magic 124 112 +12
Milwaukee Bucks 122 99 +23
Brooklyn Nets 108 97 +11

Golden State Warriors

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 101 115 -14
Boston Celtics 99 120 -21
Washington Wizards 125 117 +8
New York Knicks 107 110 -3
Minnesota Timberwolves 117 127 -10

Game Analysis

Atlanta is 2-1 in its last three: wins over Dallas (135-120) and Orlando (124-112) and a loss at Houston (95-117). Those results show the Hawks can pour in points but also have occasional defensive lapses. Golden State is 1-2 in the same span: a win over Washington (125-117) sandwiched between losses to Detroit (101-115) and Boston (99-120), highlighting offensive inconsistency and trouble keeping elite offenses under control. Looking at projected starters, Atlanta’s five average an offensive rating of 114.4, defensive rating of 113.6, and 17.7 points made per starter — solid two-way balance and reliable scoring. Golden State’s starters average an offensive rating of 108.7, defensive rating of 114.2, and just 9.9 points made per starter, indicating weaker scoring production from the unit and slightly worse defensive footing.

Final Prediction

The Hawks’ upward momentum, stronger offensive profile (114.4 vs 108.7), and higher scoring from their starters give them the edge. Key factor to watch: whether Golden State can generate consistent offense from its starting five or Atlanta’s attack will dictate the game.

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