NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Memphis Grizzlies: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
77.0%
VS

Memphis Grizzlies

Away Team
23.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
114.5
DR
113.9
PTS
19.5
VS
Cedric Coward
OR
114.8
DR
117.0
PTS
13.4
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
111.6
DR
112.8
PTS
20.4
VS
Jaylen Wells
OR
112.2
DR
119.4
PTS
12.7
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
127.1
DR
116.5
PTS
19.3
VS
Ty Jerome
OR
126.8
DR
124.8
PTS
19.9
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
118.6
DR
115.6
PTS
17.4
VS
GG Jackson II
OR
100.9
DR
99.7
PTS
11.3
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
135.6
DR
111.7
PTS
8.0
VS
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.8
DR
118.0
PTS
8.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets are picked to win (77.0% probability). Expected starting fives — Charlotte: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté. Memphis: Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring game with a combined total around 231.11 points, suggesting a fast pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 9.43 points, effectively giving the home side a roughly 9.4-point edge — a margin that strongly favors the predicted winner.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.1 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Memphis Grizzlies) 9.4 Most likely outcome: 9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Charlotte’s ratings are rising over the last five games while Memphis’s trend is slightly down.

Charlotte Hornets

1583.7 +18.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Orlando Magic 1583.7 +10.0
2026-03-17 Miami Heat 1573.7 +11.3
2026-03-14 San Antonio Spurs 1562.4 -6.8
2026-03-11 Sacramento Kings 1569.2 +4.2
2026-03-10 Portland Trail Blazers 1565.0 —

Memphis Grizzlies

1359.6 -2.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Boston Celtics 1359.6 -3.5
2026-03-18 Denver Nuggets 1363.1 +14.3
2026-03-16 Chicago Bulls 1348.8 -9.9
2026-03-13 Detroit Pistons 1358.7 -3.1
2026-03-12 Dallas Mavericks 1361.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 130 111 +19
Miami Heat 136 106 +30
San Antonio Spurs 102 115 -13
Sacramento Kings 117 109 +8
Portland Trail Blazers 103 101 +2

Memphis Grizzlies

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 112 117 -5
Denver Nuggets 125 118 +7
Chicago Bulls 107 132 -25
Detroit Pistons 110 126 -16
Dallas Mavericks 112 120 -8

Game Analysis

Charlotte enters this matchup 2-1 over the last three games, putting up 130 and 136 points in back-to-back wins before a 102-115 loss to San Antonio, showing they can score in bunches but have occasional defensive lapses. Memphis is 1-2 in their last three, with a solid 125-118 win over Denver sandwiched between two losses (112-117 to Boston and 107-132 to Chicago), illustrating inconsistency on both ends. Looking at the expected starters, Charlotte’s five average an offensive rating of 121.48 and a defensive rating of 114.10 with an average 16.92 points made per starter, while Memphis’s projected five average an offensive rating of 112.90 and defensive rating of 115.78 with 13.22 points made per starter. That gap — notably Charlotte’s stronger offensive profile and slightly better team defense — helps explain the projected advantage.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s recent scoring form combined with a superior offensive outlook for their starters gives them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Memphis can tighten up defensively and contain Charlotte’s scoring bursts — that will decide if the spread holds.

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