NBA 2025-2026: Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Dallas Mavericks

Home Team
39.6%
VS

Los Angeles Clippers

Away Team
60.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Ryan Nembhard
OR
102.3
DR
119.9
PTS
6.3
VS
Darius Garland
OR
118.2
DR
123.0
PTS
19.0
SG
Max Christie
OR
114.3
DR
118.8
PTS
12.7
VS
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
124.6
DR
118.5
PTS
11.1
SF
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.6
DR
114.7
PTS
20.1
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.0
DR
112.6
PTS
28.2
PF
Naji Marshall
OR
115.9
DR
116.8
PTS
15.1
VS
John Collins
OR
122.1
DR
117.3
PTS
13.8
C
P.J. Washington
OR
102.7
DR
113.4
PTS
14.2
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
96.8
DR
115.9
PTS
7.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Los Angeles Clippers are the pick to win (60.4% probability). Expected starting five — Dallas Mavericks: Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington. Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring affair with a combined total of 239.63 points, suggesting a fairly fast pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread is -3.27 (Home - Away), giving the Clippers a roughly 3.27-point edge at home.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 239.6 Most likely outcome: 239 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Los Angeles Clippers) -3.3 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams are trending downward recently: Dallas has a small decline while Los Angeles has fallen more sharply.

Dallas Mavericks

1373.1 -5.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Atlanta Hawks 1373.1 -6.1
2026-03-16 New Orleans Pelicans 1379.2 -8.9
2026-03-15 Cleveland Cavaliers 1388.1 +15.3
2026-03-13 Cleveland Cavaliers 1372.8 -5.8
2026-03-12 Memphis Grizzlies 1378.6 —

Los Angeles Clippers

1520.9 -47.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 New Orleans Pelicans 1520.9 -11.8
2026-03-18 New Orleans Pelicans 1532.7 -13.8
2026-03-16 San Antonio Spurs 1546.5 -6.5
2026-03-14 Sacramento Kings 1553.0 -15.4
2026-03-13 Chicago Bulls 1568.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Dallas Mavericks

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 120 135 -15
New Orleans Pelicans 111 129 -18
Cleveland Cavaliers 130 120 +10
Cleveland Cavaliers 105 138 -33
Memphis Grizzlies 120 112 +8

Los Angeles Clippers

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 99 105 -6
New Orleans Pelicans 109 124 -15
San Antonio Spurs 115 119 -4
Sacramento Kings 109 118 -9
Chicago Bulls 119 108 +11

Game Analysis

Dallas is 1-2 over its last three games, with a convincing 130-120 win over Cleveland but heavy losses to Atlanta (120-135) and New Orleans (111-129). That inconsistency shows Dallas can score (Cooper Flagg averages 20.1 points) but has struggled defensively in recent outings. The Mavericks’ projected starters combine for an average offensive rating of 108.56, a defensive rating of 116.72, and an average of 13.68 points made per starter. The Clippers are on a three-game skid, dropping games to New Orleans (99-105 and 109-124) and San Antonio (115-119). Their projected five brings stronger shooting and scoring: an average offensive rating of 117.34, defensive rating of 117.46, and 15.94 points made per starter, led by Kawhi Leonard’s 28.2 scoring average. Those offensive advantages, plus home proximity in the spread, explain the Clippers’ edge despite recent losses.

Final Prediction

Clippers’ higher offensive profile and their 3.27-point home advantage give them the edge in a matchup expected to produce 239.63 points, which is why they’re favored at 60.4%. Watch whether the Clippers can contain Cooper Flagg and whether Kawhi Leonard can carry the offense; those factors will likely determine the final margin.

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