NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
43.6%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
56.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
118.2
DR
112.9
PTS
19.4
VS
James Harden
OR
125.8
DR
116.3
PTS
20.9
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
103.2
DR
116.4
PTS
9.0
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
121.1
DR
115.0
PTS
28.0
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.3
DR
120.4
PTS
17.4
VS
Sam Merrill
OR
126.7
DR
118.6
PTS
12.8
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
122.5
DR
118.9
PTS
22.0
VS
Dean Wade
OR
127.3
DR
114.3
PTS
5.9
C
Zion Williamson
OR
125.4
DR
118.0
PTS
21.3
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
118.1
DR
111.1
PTS
18.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (56.4% probability). Expected starting fives — New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring game with a combined total around 242.37 points, suggesting a fairly uptempo affair with both offenses likely to get a lot of looks. The spread (Home − Away = −3.19) implies about a 3.2-point edge for the Cavaliers, putting Cleveland as the slight favorite.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 242.4 Most likely outcome: 242 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Cleveland Cavaliers) -3.2 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New Orleans' power rating has been rising noticeably over the last five games, while Cleveland's rating has been relatively stable with a small uptick.

New Orleans Pelicans

1460.9 +29.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Los Angeles Clippers 1460.9 +11.8
2026-03-18 Los Angeles Clippers 1449.1 +13.9
2026-03-16 Dallas Mavericks 1435.2 +8.8
2026-03-13 Houston Rockets 1426.4 -5.3
2026-03-11 Toronto Raptors 1431.7 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1594.2 +1.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Chicago Bulls 1594.2 +5.1
2026-03-17 Milwaukee Bucks 1589.1 +6.3
2026-03-15 Dallas Mavericks 1582.8 -15.3
2026-03-13 Dallas Mavericks 1598.1 +5.8
2026-03-11 Orlando Magic 1592.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New Orleans Pelicans

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 105 99 +6
Los Angeles Clippers 124 109 +15
Dallas Mavericks 129 111 +18
Houston Rockets 105 107 -2
Toronto Raptors 122 111 +11

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 115 110 +5
Milwaukee Bucks 123 116 +7
Dallas Mavericks 120 130 -10
Dallas Mavericks 138 105 +33
Orlando Magic 122 128 -6

Game Analysis

New Orleans enters on a three-game winning streak (wins over the Clippers twice and the Mavericks), scoring 105, 124 and 129 while holding opponents to 99, 109 and 111 — momentum and scoring have ticked up. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three (wins over the Bulls and Bucks, a loss to Dallas), showing consistency against quality opponents but a defensive wobble in the Dallas loss. Looking at the expected starting units, New Orleans’ five average offensive rating is about 118.1 and defensive rating about 117.3, with an average points-made per starter of roughly 17.8. Cleveland’s starters average ~123.8 on offense, ~115.1 on defense, and about 17.2 points-made per starter. That edge in offensive efficiency and slightly better team defense favors Cleveland, while New Orleans’ recent scoring surge keeps this close.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s higher offensive rating and cleaner defensive numbers give them the edge in a matchup where both teams can score. Watch the Zion–Mobley matchup and how well New Orleans’ wings contain Donovan Mitchell and James Harden; that matchup flow will likely decide the outcome.

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