NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
75.4%
VS

Indiana Pacers

Away Team
24.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
119.1
DR
113.0
PTS
19.0
VS
Andrew Nembhard
OR
112.7
DR
122.2
PTS
17.0
SG
Devin Vassell
OR
116.3
DR
114.4
PTS
14.2
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
106.4
DR
121.1
PTS
13.6
SF
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.4
DR
111.8
PTS
11.2
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
101.1
DR
118.4
PTS
11.3
PF
Harrison Barnes
OR
119.1
DR
115.7
PTS
10.2
VS
Pascal Siakam
OR
111.4
DR
117.8
PTS
24.0
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
119.0
DR
99.8
PTS
24.3
VS
Jay Huff
OR
109.9
DR
115.7
PTS
9.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (75.4% probability). Expected starting fives — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama; Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of 224.42 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with room for fast possessions and offensive output. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.39, which means the home team would be projected to have about a 12.4-point advantage — a sizable cushion for whoever is hosting.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.4 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Indiana Pacers) 12.4 Most likely outcome: 12 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s ratings are rising (up +21.0 over five games) while Indiana’s are falling (down -17.6 over five games).

San Antonio Spurs

1701.4 +21.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Phoenix Suns 1701.4 +4.6
2026-03-17 Sacramento Kings 1696.8 +3.0
2026-03-16 Los Angeles Clippers 1693.8 +6.5
2026-03-14 Charlotte Hornets 1687.3 +6.9
2026-03-12 Denver Nuggets 1680.4 —

Indiana Pacers

1290.8 -17.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Portland Trail Blazers 1290.8 -5.2
2026-03-17 New York Knicks 1296.0 -2.7
2026-03-15 Milwaukee Bucks 1298.7 -6.4
2026-03-13 New York Knicks 1305.1 -3.3
2026-03-12 Phoenix Suns 1308.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 101 100 +1
Sacramento Kings 132 104 +28
Los Angeles Clippers 119 115 +4
Charlotte Hornets 115 102 +13
Denver Nuggets 131 136 -5

Indiana Pacers

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 119 127 -8
New York Knicks 110 136 -26
Milwaukee Bucks 123 134 -11
New York Knicks 92 101 -9
Phoenix Suns 108 123 -15

Game Analysis

San Antonio arrives on a three-game winning streak (close 101-100 over Phoenix, decisive 132-104 over Sacramento, 119-115 over the Clippers), showing both finishing ability and recent consistency. Indiana is in the opposite groove, dropping three straight (119-127 vs Portland, 110-136 vs New York, 123-134 vs Milwaukee), indicating struggles on both ends and difficulty containing opponents lately. Looking at the expected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 118.18, defensive rating of 110.94, and average points made of 15.78 — a balanced group with especially strong defense driven by Victor Wembanyama’s 99.8 defensive rating. Indiana’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 108.30, defensive rating of 119.04, and average points made of 15.06, which points to below-average efficiency and a clear defensive weakness. Those gaps in both offense and defense favor San Antonio controlling the game flow and limiting Indiana’s scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s recent form, improving ratings, and superior starter metrics give them the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how effectively Indiana can disrupt Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs’ supporting scorers; if they fail to do so, the spread and result will likely follow the projection.

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