NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Washington Wizards

Home Team
13.4%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
86.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Bub Carrington
OR
106.2
DR
124.4
PTS
10.0
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
136.3
DR
107.8
PTS
31.5
SG
Tre Johnson
OR
104.5
DR
123.9
PTS
12.4
VS
Ajay Mitchell
OR
119.4
DR
107.0
PTS
14.2
SF
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
108.5
DR
119.5
PTS
11.0
VS
Cason Wallace
OR
110.0
DR
106.2
PTS
8.6
PF
Will Riley
OR
105.8
DR
124.3
PTS
8.9
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.0
DR
103.7
PTS
17.2
C
Alex Sarr
OR
108.3
DR
116.7
PTS
16.5
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
122.1
DR
103.6
PTS
9.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to win (86.6% probability). Expected starting fives — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Alex Sarr. Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 234.19 points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring affair rather than a grind-it-out defensive game. The spread is -16.77 (Home - Away), a sizable edge that effectively favors Oklahoma City by about 16.8 points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.2 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Oklahoma City Thunder) -16.8 Most likely outcome: -17 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s rating is trending up while Washington’s is sliding downward.

Washington Wizards

1303.9 -15.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Detroit Pistons 1303.9 -3.1
2026-03-17 Detroit Pistons 1307.0 -2.8
2026-03-16 Golden State Warriors 1309.8 -6.8
2026-03-14 Boston Celtics 1316.6 -2.7
2026-03-12 Orlando Magic 1319.3 —

Oklahoma City Thunder

1695.3 +23.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Brooklyn Nets 1695.3 +2.7
2026-03-17 Orlando Magic 1692.6 +6.4
2026-03-15 Minnesota Timberwolves 1686.2 +6.5
2026-03-12 Boston Celtics 1679.7 +7.5
2026-03-09 Denver Nuggets 1672.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Washington Wizards

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 95 117 -22
Detroit Pistons 117 130 -13
Golden State Warriors 117 125 -8
Boston Celtics 100 111 -11
Orlando Magic 131 136 -5

Oklahoma City Thunder

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 121 92 +29
Orlando Magic 113 108 +5
Minnesota Timberwolves 116 103 +13
Boston Celtics 104 102 +2
Denver Nuggets 129 126 +3

Game Analysis

Washington arrives on a three-game skid, losing 95-117, 117-130 and 117-125, with opponents routinely breaking 117 points — a sign their defense has struggled recently. By contrast, Oklahoma City is on a three-game winning streak (121-92, 113-108, 116-103), showing balance on both ends and the ability to hold opponents under 110 in two of those games. Looking at the projected starters, Washington’s five average an offensive rating of 106.66 and a defensive rating of 121.76, with a combined average of 11.76 points per starter. Oklahoma City’s starters average a much higher offensive rating at 122.36 and a stingier defensive rating at 105.66, with 16.24 points per starter on average. Those gaps in both offense and defense explain the forecasted blowout and the Thunder’s ability to control tempo and scoring.

Final Prediction

The Thunder’s superior offensive firepower and consistently better defensive numbers give them a clear edge in this matchup. Watch how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren dictate pace — their play will likely determine whether this becomes the expected runaway.

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