NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
61.6%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
38.4%
2025-2026 Season

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
124.0
DR
119.7
PTS
25.2
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.1
DR
117.0
PTS
16.1
SG
Christian Braun
OR
122.7
DR
117.2
PTS
11.6
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
115.6
DR
116.2
PTS
24.2
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
119.8
DR
114.4
PTS
16.8
VS
Jerami Grant
OR
116.7
DR
118.9
PTS
18.6
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
121.2
DR
118.5
PTS
11.7
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
110.5
DR
117.4
PTS
12.7
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.2
DR
112.4
PTS
28.1
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
131.1
DR
111.4
PTS
12.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Denver Nuggets to win (61.6% probability). Expected starting fives — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić; Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected combined total is 241.07 points, indicating a fairly high-scoring game and a faster-than-average pace. The projected spread is Denver -5.65, giving the home team a clear edge of roughly six points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 241.1 Most likely outcome: 241 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Portland Trail Blazers) 5.7 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s power rating has dipped slightly over the last five games while Portland’s has been rising.

Denver Nuggets

1560.4 -4.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Toronto Raptors 1560.4 +9.1
2026-03-18 Memphis Grizzlies 1551.3 -14.2
2026-03-17 Philadelphia 76ers 1565.5 +9.6
2026-03-14 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.9 -9.4
2026-03-12 San Antonio Spurs 1565.3 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1499.3 +15.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Minnesota Timberwolves 1499.3 +12.3
2026-03-18 Indiana Pacers 1487.0 +5.2
2026-03-16 Brooklyn Nets 1481.8 +7.5
2026-03-15 Philadelphia 76ers 1474.3 -9.1
2026-03-13 Utah Jazz 1483.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 121 115 +6
Memphis Grizzlies 118 125 -7
Philadelphia 76ers 124 96 +28
Los Angeles Lakers 125 127 -2
San Antonio Spurs 136 131 +5

Portland Trail Blazers

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 108 104 +4
Indiana Pacers 127 119 +8
Brooklyn Nets 114 95 +19
Philadelphia 76ers 103 109 -6
Utah Jazz 124 114 +10

Game Analysis

Denver is 2-1 in its last three, with a dominant 124-96 win over Philadelphia and a close 121-115 win over Toronto, sandwiched around a 118-125 loss to Memphis. Portland arrives on a three-game winning streak (108-104, 127-119, 114-95), showing momentum and consistent scoring. Those recent results suggest Portland’s confidence is up while Denver is riding streaky performances from its core. Looking at the starters, Denver’s five average offensive rating is 124.58 with an average defensive rating of 116.44 and average points made of 18.68; Nikola Jokić stands out (OFF 135.2, 28.1 PPG). Portland’s starters average a 118.00 offensive rating, 116.18 defensive rating, and 16.78 points made; Donovan Clingan posts a high offensive rating (131.1) but a modest scoring average (12.3). The edge goes to Denver on offense, while team defenses look nearly even on paper.

Final Prediction

Denver’s higher starting-five offensive profile and home spread give them the advantage in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how well Denver contains Portland’s recent scoring balance and whether Jokic can impose his offensive rating advantage.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel