NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
49.6%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
50.4%
2025-2026 Season

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Collin Gillespie
OR
120.1
DR
115.2
PTS
13.3
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.8
DR
114.9
PTS
17.0
SG
Devin Booker
OR
116.9
DR
117.1
PTS
25.5
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
110.1
DR
114.6
PTS
21.8
SF
Jalen Green
OR
97.2
DR
114.2
PTS
17.5
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.4
DR
114.3
PTS
19.0
PF
Royce O'Neale
OR
114.8
DR
114.3
PTS
9.9
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.2
DR
110.1
PTS
18.6
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
117.2
DR
112.6
PTS
6.3
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
128.4
DR
109.8
PTS
10.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Toronto Raptors are the pick (50.4% probability). EXPECTED starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro. EXPECTED starting five — Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 227.88 points, signaling a moderately high-scoring game and a steady offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away = -0.67) is tiny and gives a hairline advantage to the road team by about 0.7 points, so this should be a one-possession matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 227.9 Most likely outcome: 227 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Toronto Raptors) -0.7 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Phoenix’s ELO has been falling recently while Toronto’s ELO has been rising over the same stretch.

Phoenix Suns

1513.8 -34.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-21 Milwaukee Bucks 1513.8 -13.2
2026-03-19 San Antonio Spurs 1527.0 -4.6
2026-03-17 Minnesota Timberwolves 1531.6 -9.2
2026-03-16 Boston Celtics 1540.8 -7.6
2026-03-13 Toronto Raptors 1548.4 —

Toronto Raptors

1533.2 +23.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Denver Nuggets 1533.2 -9.2
2026-03-18 Chicago Bulls 1542.4 +8.3
2026-03-15 Detroit Pistons 1534.1 +13.5
2026-03-13 Phoenix Suns 1520.6 +11.2
2026-03-11 New Orleans Pelicans 1509.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 105 108 -3
San Antonio Spurs 100 101 -1
Minnesota Timberwolves 104 116 -12
Boston Celtics 112 120 -8
Toronto Raptors 115 122 -7

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 115 121 -6
Chicago Bulls 139 109 +30
Detroit Pistons 119 108 +11
Phoenix Suns 122 115 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 111 122 -11

Game Analysis

Phoenix enters on a three-game losing skid (105-108 vs Milwaukee, 100-101 vs San Antonio, 104-116 vs Minnesota) with two razor-thin losses and one larger defeat, suggesting they’ve struggled to close games and contain scoring. Toronto has two wins in their last three (139-109 vs Chicago, 119-108 vs Detroit) with a six-point loss to Denver, showing more positive recent form and the ability to score in bunches. Looking at the projected starting units, Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of 113.24, defensive rating of 114.68, and 14.50 average points made per starter; Devin Booker’s 25.5 points stand out. Toronto’s starters average a higher offensive rating (117.78), a slightly better defensive rating (112.74), and 17.42 points made per starter; Jakob Poeltl’s 128.4 offensive rating is notable for interior efficiency. Those differences in starter-level scoring and offensive efficiency tilt the matchup toward Toronto.

Final Prediction

Toronto’s recent form and stronger starting-five offensive profile give them the edge in a very close game. Watch how Toronto’s interior play and Poeltl’s efficiency impact Phoenix’s ability to score in the paint.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel