NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
82.7%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
17.3%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.0
DR
116.1
PTS
26.1
VS
Dejounte Murray
OR
116.4
DR
113.7
PTS
18.7
SG
Josh Hart
OR
121.3
DR
110.2
PTS
12.2
VS
Herbert Jones
OR
103.2
DR
116.4
PTS
9.0
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.0
DR
112.9
PTS
14.7
VS
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.3
DR
120.5
PTS
17.4
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
116.2
DR
111.9
PTS
16.7
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
121.9
DR
118.9
PTS
21.8
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.0
DR
109.2
PTS
20.2
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
125.5
DR
118.0
PTS
21.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are projected to win with an 82.7% probability. Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 236.47 points, signaling a relatively high-scoring game and an up-tempo contest with both offenses likely to produce. The spread of 7.63 (home minus away) favors the home team by roughly two possessions, giving the home side a clear cushion in this matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.5
Most likely outcome: 236 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - New Orleans Pelicans)
7.6
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show upward momentum: the Knicks rose from 1601.4 to 1615.5 (+14.1) while the Pelicans climbed from 1426.4 to 1454.4 (+28.0).
New York Knicks
1615.5
+14.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Washington Wizards | 1615.5 | +2.9 |
| 2026-03-20 | Brooklyn Nets | 1612.6 | +3.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Indiana Pacers | 1609.6 | +2.8 |
| 2026-03-15 | Golden State Warriors | 1606.8 | +5.4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Indiana Pacers | 1601.4 | — |
New Orleans Pelicans
1454.4
+28.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1454.4 | -6.5 |
| 2026-03-19 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1460.9 | +11.8 |
| 2026-03-18 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1449.1 | +13.9 |
| 2026-03-16 | Dallas Mavericks | 1435.2 | +8.8 |
| 2026-03-13 | Houston Rockets | 1426.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 145 | 113 | +32 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 93 | 92 | +1 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 136 | 110 | +26 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 110 | 107 | +3 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 101 | 92 | +9 |
New Orleans Pelicans
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 106 | 111 | -5 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 105 | 99 | +6 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 124 | 109 | +15 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 129 | 111 | +18 | |
| Houston Rockets | 105 | 107 | -2 |
Game Analysis
New York enters on a three-game winning streak (145-113, 93-92, 136-110), combining elite scoring nights with a tight one-possession win, suggesting they can flex between pace and control. New Orleans is 2-1 over its last three (wins 105-99, 124-109; loss 106-111), showing offensive firepower but a recent loss that exposed some defensive inconsistencies.
Looking at starters, the Knicks’ five average an offensive rating of 121.1, defensive rating of 112.1, and an average 18.0 points made per starter; the Pelicans’ five average an offensive rating of 117.7, defensive rating of 117.5, and 17.6 points made per starter. That gap—particularly New York’s stronger defensive rating—helps explain the projected edge; New York combines top-end scoring with noticeably better defense among its projected starters.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ combination of recent form and superior starter ratings gives them the clear advantage in this matchup. Watch whether New York can sustain its defensive pressure on Zion and Trey Murphy III—if they do, the spread will look justified.
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