NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
37.1%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
62.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Collin Gillespie
OR
120.4
DR
115.1
PTS
13.3
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
123.9
DR
119.7
PTS
25.1
SG
Devin Booker
OR
117.6
DR
117.0
PTS
25.5
VS
Christian Braun
OR
123.5
DR
117.1
PTS
11.7
SF
Jalen Green
OR
99.0
DR
114.0
PTS
17.6
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.2
DR
114.6
PTS
16.6
PF
Royce O'Neale
OR
114.8
DR
114.3
PTS
9.9
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
122.4
DR
118.4
PTS
11.8
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
117.3
DR
112.4
PTS
6.3
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.0
DR
112.2
PTS
28.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets are the pick to win (62.9% probability). Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro. Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected combined total is 230.74 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and an uptempo game plan from both sides. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -3.64, which implies a 3.64-point advantage to the away team.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 230.7 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Denver Nuggets) -3.6 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Phoenix’s power rating has slipped in recent games while Denver’s has been rising.

Phoenix Suns

1526.0 -14.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-22 Toronto Raptors 1526.0 +12.2
2026-03-21 Milwaukee Bucks 1513.8 -13.2
2026-03-19 San Antonio Spurs 1527.0 -4.6
2026-03-17 Minnesota Timberwolves 1531.6 -9.2
2026-03-16 Boston Celtics 1540.8 —

Denver Nuggets

1568.9 +13.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-22 Portland Trail Blazers 1568.9 +8.5
2026-03-20 Toronto Raptors 1560.4 +9.1
2026-03-18 Memphis Grizzlies 1551.3 -14.2
2026-03-17 Philadelphia 76ers 1565.5 +9.6
2026-03-14 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 120 98 +22
Milwaukee Bucks 105 108 -3
San Antonio Spurs 100 101 -1
Minnesota Timberwolves 104 116 -12
Boston Celtics 112 120 -8

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 128 112 +16
Toronto Raptors 121 115 +6
Memphis Grizzlies 118 125 -7
Philadelphia 76ers 124 96 +28
Los Angeles Lakers 125 127 -2

Game Analysis

Phoenix is 1-2 over the last three games, with a convincing 120-98 win over Toronto but narrow losses to Milwaukee (105-108) and San Antonio (100-101). Those results show the Suns can score in bursts but have struggled to close tight games. Denver is 2-1 in the last three, beating Portland 128-112 and Toronto 121-115 before a 118-125 loss to Memphis, indicating a more consistent offensive output across that stretch. Looking at the projected starters, Phoenix’s five average offensive rating is 113.82, defensive rating 114.56, and they average 14.52 points made per starter — Devin Booker is the clear scoring engine with 25.5 points. Denver’s starters are stronger offensively with an average offensive rating of 125.20, defensive rating 116.40, and 18.64 points made per starter; Nikola Jokić (135.0 offensive rating, 28.0 points) and Jamal Murray (123.9, 25.1) give Denver a significant scoring and playmaking edge.

Final Prediction

Denver’s higher offensive ceiling and recent upward momentum give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how well Phoenix can limit Jokić and Murray — containing Denver’s core will be the decisive factor.

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