NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
89.6%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
10.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
123.8
DR
119.9
PTS
25.0
VS
Max Christie
OR
114.1
DR
119.0
PTS
12.6
SG
Christian Braun
OR
123.8
DR
117.6
PTS
11.8
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.0
DR
115.1
PTS
20.3
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.3
DR
115.2
PTS
16.6
VS
Naji Marshall
OR
115.4
DR
117.2
PTS
15.3
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
122.9
DR
118.6
PTS
11.9
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
103.6
DR
114.0
PTS
14.2
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.2
DR
112.4
PTS
27.9
VS
Daniel Gafford
OR
121.1
DR
112.4
PTS
9.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets are predicted to win (Probability: 89.6%). Expected starting five — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić. Expected starting five — Dallas: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 236.22 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring affair and a decent overall pace. The expected spread is 13.57 (Home - Away), a large edge in favor of the home team that suggests Denver should control the game by a comfortable margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 236.2 Most likely outcome: 236 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Dallas Mavericks) 13.6 Most likely outcome: 14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s rating has climbed from 1565.5 to 1578.3 (+12.8) while Dallas has fallen from 1388.1 to 1358.2 (-29.9).

Denver Nuggets

1578.3 +12.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-24 Phoenix Suns 1578.3 +9.4
2026-03-22 Portland Trail Blazers 1568.9 +8.5
2026-03-20 Toronto Raptors 1560.4 +9.1
2026-03-18 Memphis Grizzlies 1551.3 -14.2
2026-03-17 Philadelphia 76ers 1565.5 —

Dallas Mavericks

1358.2 -29.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Golden State Warriors 1358.2 -8.3
2026-03-21 Los Angeles Clippers 1366.5 -6.6
2026-03-18 Atlanta Hawks 1373.1 -6.1
2026-03-16 New Orleans Pelicans 1379.2 -8.9
2026-03-15 Cleveland Cavaliers 1388.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 125 123 +2
Portland Trail Blazers 128 112 +16
Toronto Raptors 121 115 +6
Memphis Grizzlies 118 125 -7
Philadelphia 76ers 124 96 +28

Dallas Mavericks

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 131 137 -6
Los Angeles Clippers 131 138 -7
Atlanta Hawks 120 135 -15
New Orleans Pelicans 111 129 -18
Cleveland Cavaliers 130 120 +10

Game Analysis

Denver arrives on a three-game winning streak, beating Phoenix 125-123, Portland 128-112 and Toronto 121-115 — showing consistent offense and the ability to close tight games. Dallas is sliding through a three-game losing skid, dropping 131-137 to Golden State, 131-138 to the Clippers and 120-135 to Atlanta, with opponents scoring heavily in each contest. Those recent results point to Denver’s momentum vs. Dallas’s defensive struggles. Looking at the projected starters, Denver’s five average offensive rating is 125.4 and their average defensive rating is 116.74, with an average 18.64 points made per starter; Jokić (OFF 135.2, 27.9 PTS) is the key driver. Dallas’s starters average a 112.44 offensive rating and a 115.54 defensive rating, with 14.38 points made per starter. That gap on offense — plus Denver’s higher individual scoring — should tilt the matchup toward the Nuggets.

Final Prediction

Denver’s recent form, superior offensive profile (especially through Jokić) and upward rating trend give them a clear edge. Watch whether Dallas can stop Denver’s primary scorers and limit Jokić’s playmaking; that will determine how competitive the game becomes.

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