NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Los Angeles Clippers

Home Team
56.3%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
43.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Darius Garland
OR
123.8
DR
121.6
PTS
20.8
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.6
DR
115.1
PTS
16.9
SG
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
126.2
DR
118.4
PTS
11.0
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.1
DR
114.8
PTS
21.6
SF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.1
DR
112.5
PTS
28.3
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.9
DR
114.9
PTS
19.1
PF
John Collins
OR
121.5
DR
117.4
PTS
13.7
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.9
DR
110.3
PTS
18.6
C
Brook Lopez
OR
98.1
DR
115.8
PTS
7.8
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.3
DR
110.5
PTS
10.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Los Angeles Clippers to win (56.3% probability). Expected starters — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez. Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 229.26 points, suggesting a game with above-average scoring and a fairly uptempo matchup. The expected spread of 0.92 (home − away) gives a very slim edge to the Clippers as the home team, essentially a coin-flip margin favoring Los Angeles.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.3 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - Toronto Raptors) 0.9
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show slightly falling momentum over the last five games, with the Clippers down about 10.9 and the Raptors down about 7.0.

Los Angeles Clippers

1535.6 -10.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Milwaukee Bucks 1535.6 +8.1
2026-03-21 Dallas Mavericks 1527.5 +6.6
2026-03-19 New Orleans Pelicans 1520.9 -11.8
2026-03-18 New Orleans Pelicans 1532.7 -13.8
2026-03-16 San Antonio Spurs 1546.5 —

Toronto Raptors

1527.1 -7.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Utah Jazz 1527.1 +6.0
2026-03-22 Phoenix Suns 1521.1 -12.1
2026-03-20 Denver Nuggets 1533.2 -9.2
2026-03-18 Chicago Bulls 1542.4 +8.3
2026-03-15 Detroit Pistons 1534.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Clippers

2-3 in last 5
W W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 129 96 +33
Dallas Mavericks 138 131 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 99 105 -6
New Orleans Pelicans 109 124 -15
San Antonio Spurs 115 119 -4

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 143 127 +16
Phoenix Suns 98 120 -22
Denver Nuggets 115 121 -6
Chicago Bulls 139 109 +30
Detroit Pistons 119 108 +11

Game Analysis

Los Angeles is 2-1 across its last three, posting a dominant 129-96 win over Milwaukee and a high-scoring 138-131 win over Dallas, with a lone 99-105 loss to New Orleans. Toronto is 1-2, with a 143-127 win over Utah but tougher outings in losses to Phoenix (98-120) and Denver (115-121). The Clippers look hotter offensively in recent results, while the Raptors have shown they can both score in bunches and leak points defensively. Looking at the expected fives, the Clippers average an offensive rating of 118.94, defensive rating of 117.14, and 16.32 points per starter (81.6 combined). The Raptors average an offensive rating of 117.56, defensive rating of 113.12, and 17.32 points per starter (86.6 combined). On paper the Clippers bring slightly more offense, while Toronto’s five projects as the better defensive unit.

Final Prediction

The Clippers’ recent high-scoring wins and a marginal home advantage give them the edge in a tight game. Watch the interior matchup—Brook Lopez versus Jakob Poeltl—and how each team defends the paint; that will likely decide the outcome.

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