NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
60.1%
VS

Houston Rockets

Away Team
39.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
120.5
DR
114.1
PTS
13.2
VS
Reed Sheppard
OR
116.5
DR
112.8
PTS
13.5
SG
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
116.0
DR
114.2
PTS
12.2
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
123.2
DR
114.2
PTS
18.0
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.6
DR
114.9
PTS
14.6
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
122.4
DR
114.8
PTS
15.4
PF
Julius Randle
OR
117.4
DR
114.1
PTS
21.0
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
124.5
DR
115.2
PTS
25.9
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
132.4
DR
110.0
PTS
11.0
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
114.6
DR
112.0
PTS
20.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Minnesota Timberwolves are projected to win (60.1% probability). Expected starting five — Minnesota: Ayo Dosunmu, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert; Houston: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The models expect a combined 226.91 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with both teams capable of scoring in bunches. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.16, a hair favoring Houston by about a tenth of a point, essentially a toss-up. Note: two separate models are shown here — one gives a straight win probability (favoring Minnesota) and a different one predicts point spread — they can disagree, and both are presented for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.9 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Houston Rockets) -0.2 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Minnesota’s power rating has been rising over the last five games (+15.0), while Houston’s has ticked down slightly (-3.8).

Minnesota Timberwolves

1573.1 +15.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-22 Boston Celtics 1573.1 +13.3
2026-03-20 Portland Trail Blazers 1559.8 -12.3
2026-03-18 Utah Jazz 1572.1 +4.8
2026-03-17 Phoenix Suns 1567.3 +9.2
2026-03-15 Oklahoma City Thunder 1558.1 —

Houston Rockets

1551.2 -3.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Chicago Bulls 1551.2 -13.9
2026-03-21 Miami Heat 1565.1 +8.4
2026-03-20 Atlanta Hawks 1556.7 +11.8
2026-03-18 Los Angeles Lakers 1544.9 -10.1
2026-03-16 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 102 92 +10
Portland Trail Blazers 104 108 -4
Utah Jazz 147 111 +36
Phoenix Suns 116 104 +12
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 116 -13

Houston Rockets

2-3 in last 5
L W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 124 132 -8
Miami Heat 123 122 +1
Atlanta Hawks 117 95 +22
Los Angeles Lakers 116 124 -8
Los Angeles Lakers 92 100 -8

Game Analysis

Minnesota is 2-1 in its last three with wins over Boston (102-92) and Utah (147-111) and a close loss to Portland (104-108). The Wolves have shown they can both dominate offensively (the Utah game) and grind out defense-first wins. Houston is also 2-1, beating Miami (123-122) and Atlanta (117-95) but allowing 132 in a loss to Chicago, revealing some volatility on defense. Minnesota’s starting five averages an offensive rating of 120.18, defensive rating of 113.46, and 14.4 points made per starter. Houston’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 120.24, defensive rating of 113.80, and 18.64 points made per starter. The offensive ratings are nearly identical, but Houston’s starters are scoring more on average while Minnesota’s defense (and Gobert’s rim presence) could swing possessions.

Final Prediction

Minnesota’s upward momentum and defensive steadiness give them a slight edge despite nearly even matchup metrics. Key factor to watch: how Rudy Gobert influences interior defense and limits second-chance points against Houston’s attack.

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