NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
75.3%
VS

Chicago Bulls

Away Team
24.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Quentin Grimes
OR
114.9
DR
117.9
PTS
13.9
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
111.7
DR
116.2
PTS
17.5
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.1
DR
116.2
PTS
16.0
VS
Tre Jones
OR
128.4
DR
117.4
PTS
12.9
SF
Dominick Barlow
OR
122.8
DR
115.9
PTS
8.0
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.5
DR
120.6
PTS
9.0
PF
Paul George
OR
111.5
DR
112.5
PTS
16.0
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.2
DR
116.7
PTS
16.2
C
Joel Embiid
OR
117.5
DR
114.3
PTS
26.6
VS
Jalen Smith
OR
119.1
DR
116.1
PTS
10.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia 76ers are the pick to win (75.3% probability). Expected starting fives — Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Paul George, Joel Embiid. Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 240.25 points, signaling a game that leans toward a high-scoring, up-tempo affair rather than a slow defensive slog. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 8.25, meaning the home team is forecast to have roughly an 8-point advantage; that margin reinforces the forecasted comfort level for the favored side.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 240.2 Most likely outcome: 240 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Chicago Bulls) 8.2 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Philadelphia’s Elo has ticked slightly down over the last five games (−2.7) while Chicago’s has risen (+10.3), giving the Bulls upward momentum.

Philadelphia 76ers

1508.1 -2.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Oklahoma City Thunder 1508.1 -6.2
2026-03-21 Utah Jazz 1514.3 +6.1
2026-03-19 Sacramento Kings 1508.2 +7.0
2026-03-17 Denver Nuggets 1501.2 -9.6
2026-03-15 Portland Trail Blazers 1510.8 —

Chicago Bulls

1409.8 +10.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Houston Rockets 1409.8 +13.8
2026-03-19 Cleveland Cavaliers 1396.0 -5.1
2026-03-18 Toronto Raptors 1401.1 -8.4
2026-03-16 Memphis Grizzlies 1409.5 +10.0
2026-03-13 Los Angeles Clippers 1399.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 123 -20
Utah Jazz 126 116 +10
Sacramento Kings 139 118 +21
Denver Nuggets 96 124 -28
Portland Trail Blazers 109 103 +6

Chicago Bulls

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 132 124 +8
Cleveland Cavaliers 110 115 -5
Toronto Raptors 109 139 -30
Memphis Grizzlies 132 107 +25
Los Angeles Clippers 108 119 -11

Game Analysis

Philadelphia arrives off two high-scoring wins (126-116 over Utah, 139-118 over Sacramento) and a 103-123 loss to Oklahoma City, showing they can both light up the scoreboard and have lapses. Chicago is 1-2 in the last three with a 132-124 win over Houston but defensive meltdowns in 110-115 and 109-139 losses; their results point to inconsistency on that end. Recent scores suggest both teams can score in bunches but Chicago has been more erratic defensively. Looking at the projected starters, the Sixers’ five average an offensive rating of about 115.8, defensive rating near 115.4, and average points made of 16.1 each — Joel Embiid’s 26.6 is the obvious driving force. The Bulls’ starters average an offensive rating of about 116.4, defensive rating 117.4, and 13.2 points each; Tre Jones (128.4 offensive rating) and Jalen Smith (119.1) stand out offensively, but the group concedes more on the defensive end.

Final Prediction

Philadelphia’s combination of a higher-scoring starting five and a slightly better defensive profile gives them the edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: how well Chicago can slow Joel Embiid and prevent the Sixers’ starters from turning single possessions into 3–4 point swings.

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