NBA 2025-2026: Utah Jazz vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Utah Jazz
Home Team
44.2%
VS
Washington Wizards
Away Team
55.8%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
Cody Williams
OR
99.5
DR
124.2
PTS
7.4
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
106.4
DR
124.9
PTS
10.2
SG
Elijah Harkless
OR
106.9
DR
121.3
PTS
6.7
VS
Jamir Watkins
OR
99.8
DR
120.0
PTS
6.3
SF
John Konchar
OR
105.3
DR
115.1
PTS
4.3
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
108.5
DR
120.0
PTS
11.3
PF
Ace Bailey
OR
107.2
DR
122.7
PTS
13.4
VS
Will Riley
OR
105.5
DR
125.0
PTS
8.9
C
Oscar Tshiebwe
OR
141.1
DR
122.9
PTS
5.7
VS
Tristan Vukcevic
OR
93.1
DR
122.7
PTS
8.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
I’m siding with the Washington Wizards to win this one — 55.8% probability.
Expected starting five — Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, Elijah Harkless, John Konchar, Ace Bailey, Oscar Tshiebwe.
Expected starting five — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Jamir Watkins, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a high-scoring game with a combined total of 240.63 points, which points to a fast pace and plenty of possessions. The projected spread is Home - Away = 1.62, giving a slim 1.62-point edge to the home team. Note: the win probability and the point-spread come from two separate models (one predicting game winner probability, the other projecting points/spread); both outputs are presented here for transparency even though they can point in different directions.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
240.6
Most likely outcome: 240 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - Washington Wizards)
1.6
Most likely outcome: 1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Utah’s power rating is slightly down over five games (-1.7) while Washington’s has fallen more sharply (-10.9), so both are trending downward with Washington sliding more.
Utah Jazz
1332.8
-1.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Toronto Raptors | 1332.8 | -6.1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1338.9 | -6.1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1345.0 | +15.2 |
| 2026-03-18 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1329.8 | -4.7 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sacramento Kings | 1334.5 | — |
Washington Wizards
1298.9
-10.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | New York Knicks | 1298.9 | -2.9 |
| 2026-03-21 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1301.8 | -2.1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Detroit Pistons | 1303.9 | -3.1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Detroit Pistons | 1307.0 | -2.8 |
| 2026-03-16 | Golden State Warriors | 1309.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Utah Jazz
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 127 | 143 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 116 | 126 | -10 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 128 | 96 | +32 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 111 | 147 | -36 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 111 | 116 | -5 |
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 113 | 145 | -32 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 111 | 132 | -21 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 95 | 117 | -22 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 117 | 130 | -13 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 117 | 125 | -8 |
Game Analysis
Utah is 1-2 over the last three games: losses to Toronto (127-143) and Philadelphia (116-126) around a dominant win over Milwaukee (128-96). Their results show they can score in bunches but have been vulnerable on defense in recent losses. Washington has lost all three recent games — 113-145 vs NYK, 111-132 at OKC, and 95-117 vs Detroit — a clear cold streak on both ends of the floor.
Looking at the projected starters, Utah’s five average an offensive rating of 112.00, a defensive rating of 121.24, and 7.50 average points made per starter. Washington’s projected five average an offensive rating of 102.66, a defensive rating of 122.52, and 9.08 average points made per starter. Oscar Tshiebwe’s very high offensive rating (141.1) lifts Utah’s offense, while Washington’s starters are collectively producing more points per player despite lower offensive efficiency.
Final Prediction
The model leans Washington because their starters are producing more points per player and the probability model favors them 55.8%. A key factor to watch is how Oscar Tshiebwe’s offense translates into the paint — if he controls the interior, he can swing the game; if Washington contains him, the Wizards’ scoring balance may be decisive.
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