NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Charlotte Hornets
Home Team
65.7%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
34.3%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
115.5
DR
113.1
PTS
19.7
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.3
DR
116.3
PTS
26.2
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
112.3
DR
112.4
PTS
20.3
VS
Josh Hart
OR
121.1
DR
110.4
PTS
12.2
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
126.9
DR
116.1
PTS
19.0
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.0
DR
113.1
PTS
14.7
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
118.7
DR
115.1
PTS
17.2
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
116.5
DR
112.0
PTS
16.8
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.2
DR
111.1
PTS
8.2
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
121.9
DR
109.4
PTS
20.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Charlotte Hornets — 65.7% chance to win.
Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté.
Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects 225.79 combined points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a solid offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 1.45, giving the home team a slim 1.45-point edge in what should be a closely contested matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.8
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - New York Knicks)
1.4
Most likely outcome: 1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are trending upward: Charlotte’s power rating rose by +30.2 over five games while New York’s increased by +13.7.
Charlotte Hornets
1592.6
+30.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | Sacramento Kings | 1592.6 | +4.7 |
| 2026-03-21 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1587.9 | +4.2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Orlando Magic | 1583.7 | +10.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Miami Heat | 1573.7 | +11.3 |
| 2026-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs | 1562.4 | — |
New York Knicks
1620.5
+13.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1620.5 | +5.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Washington Wizards | 1615.5 | +2.9 |
| 2026-03-20 | Brooklyn Nets | 1612.6 | +3.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Indiana Pacers | 1609.6 | +2.8 |
| 2026-03-15 | Golden State Warriors | 1606.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Charlotte Hornets
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 134 | 90 | +44 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 124 | 101 | +23 | |
| Orlando Magic | 130 | 111 | +19 | |
| Miami Heat | 136 | 106 | +30 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 102 | 115 | -13 |
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 121 | 116 | +5 | |
| Washington Wizards | 145 | 113 | +32 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 93 | 92 | +1 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 136 | 110 | +26 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 110 | 107 | +3 |
Game Analysis
Charlotte arrives on a three-game winning streak with dominant scorelines — 134-90, 124-101, and 130-111 — showing they can both score in volume and push opponents off the glass and paint. New York is also 3-0 recently but with more variance: a 145-113 blowout, a solid 121-116 win, and a grinding 93-92 victory that suggests they can win in different ways but were held to one of their lowest outputs against Brooklyn.
Looking at the expected fives, Charlotte’s starters average an offensive rating of about 121.92, defensive rating near 113.56 and average points made ~16.9, while New York’s five average offensive rating ~121.16, defensive rating ~112.24 and average points made ~18.0. That implies Charlotte’s group will push tempo and scoring balance, while New York’s unit brings slightly better team defense and more individual scoring from Brunson and Towns.
Final Prediction
Charlotte’s recent blowouts, balanced scoring and a hotter momentum curve give them the edge in this projection. Watch whether New York can slow the Hornets’ pace and contain LaMelo and Kon Knueppel; that matchup will decide the game.
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