NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Boston Celtics

Home Team
58.2%
VS

Atlanta Hawks

Away Team
41.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Baylor Scheierman
OR
117.0
DR
113.0
PTS
4.9
VS
CJ McCollum
OR
112.6
DR
115.4
PTS
18.7
SG
Derrick White
OR
117.9
DR
112.2
PTS
17.2
VS
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.2
DR
112.5
PTS
11.8
SF
Jayson Tatum
OR
106.1
DR
106.8
PTS
19.1
VS
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
115.6
DR
116.6
PTS
20.4
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
114.6
DR
115.3
PTS
8.9
VS
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.4
DR
111.0
PTS
22.8
C
Neemias Queta
OR
135.3
DR
108.1
PTS
9.9
VS
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.2
DR
112.1
PTS
15.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model picks the Boston Celtics to win with a 58.2% probability. Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta. Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 224.24 points, signaling a moderately high-scoring game and a fairly up-tempo affair if both teams hit their recent offensive strides. The expected spread is Home - Away: 3.6, giving a modest 3.6-point edge to the home team and suggesting a single-possession margin where home-court matters.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.2 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Atlanta Hawks) 3.6 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s power rating has edged up modestly (+8.1 over five games) while Atlanta’s has climbed more sharply (+13.5), so both teams are trending upward with the Hawks showing stronger recent gains.

Boston Celtics

1633.4 +8.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Oklahoma City Thunder 1633.4 +12.2
2026-03-22 Minnesota Timberwolves 1621.2 -13.3
2026-03-20 Memphis Grizzlies 1634.5 +3.5
2026-03-18 Golden State Warriors 1631.0 +5.7
2026-03-16 Phoenix Suns 1625.3 —

Atlanta Hawks

1573.5 +13.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Detroit Pistons 1573.5 +12.3
2026-03-23 Memphis Grizzlies 1561.2 +5.5
2026-03-21 Golden State Warriors 1555.7 +7.5
2026-03-20 Houston Rockets 1548.2 -11.8
2026-03-18 Dallas Mavericks 1560.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 119 109 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 92 102 -10
Memphis Grizzlies 117 112 +5
Golden State Warriors 120 99 +21
Phoenix Suns 120 112 +8

Atlanta Hawks

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 130 129 +1
Memphis Grizzlies 146 107 +39
Golden State Warriors 126 110 +16
Houston Rockets 95 117 -22
Dallas Mavericks 135 120 +15

Game Analysis

Boston is 2-1 in its last three (wins over Oklahoma City 119-109 and Memphis 117-112, loss at Minnesota 92-102) — a mix of efficient outings and one off-night. Atlanta arrives on a three-game win streak (130-129 vs Detroit, 146-107 vs Memphis, 126-110 vs Golden State) and is averaging 134.0 points across those games, showing a red-hot offense. The contrast in recent scoring is stark: Boston has averaged 109.33 points in the three, Atlanta 134.0. Looking at the expected starting fives, Boston’s group averages an offensive rating of 118.18, a defensive rating of 111.08, and 12.00 points made per starter; Atlanta’s starters average an offensive rating of 115.60, a defensive rating of 113.52, and 17.82 points made per starter. That suggests Boston’s five combine slightly better efficiency and steadier defense, while Atlanta’s starters produce more individual scoring — a matchup of efficiency vs. volume.

Final Prediction

Boston’s edge comes from slightly better overall efficiency and a more consistent defensive profile, which narrows Atlanta’s recent scoring edge. Key factor to watch: whether Boston’s defense can slow Atlanta’s hot offense and contain the Hawks’ high-volume starters.

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