NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
72.7%
VS
Miami Heat
Away Team
27.3%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
125.7
DR
117.6
PTS
21.0
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
121.4
DR
115.1
PTS
9.1
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
121.3
DR
115.6
PTS
28.2
VS
Norman Powell
OR
114.5
DR
115.5
PTS
22.2
SF
Sam Merrill
OR
127.1
DR
119.0
PTS
13.1
VS
Tyler Herro
OR
118.2
DR
117.4
PTS
21.3
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
118.5
DR
111.8
PTS
18.1
VS
Andrew Wiggins
OR
116.2
DR
113.1
PTS
15.7
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
129.4
DR
111.5
PTS
15.3
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
114.2
DR
110.5
PTS
20.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (72.7% probability). Expected starting fives — Cleveland: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen. Miami: Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a high-scoring affair with a combined total of 243.43 points, signaling an up-tempo game and plenty of offense. The expected spread is 9.74 (Home - Away), giving roughly a 10-point edge to the home side — a margin that aligns with Cleveland being favored.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
243.4
Most likely outcome: 243 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Miami Heat)
9.7
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Cleveland’s power rating has nudged up over the last five games while Miami’s has trended downward.
Cleveland Cavaliers
1592.9
+3.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Miami Heat | 1592.9 | -14.3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Orlando Magic | 1607.2 | +6.5 |
| 2026-03-21 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1600.7 | +6.5 |
| 2026-03-19 | Chicago Bulls | 1594.2 | +5.1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1589.1 | — |
Miami Heat
1528.1
-9.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1528.1 | +14.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | San Antonio Spurs | 1513.7 | -6.5 |
| 2026-03-21 | Houston Rockets | 1520.2 | -8.3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1528.5 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-17 | Charlotte Hornets | 1538.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 103 | 120 | -17 | |
| Orlando Magic | 136 | 131 | +5 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 111 | 106 | +5 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 115 | 110 | +5 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 123 | 116 | +7 |
Miami Heat
1-4 in last 5
W
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 120 | 103 | +17 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 111 | 136 | -25 | |
| Houston Rockets | 122 | 123 | -1 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 126 | 134 | -8 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 106 | 136 | -30 |
Game Analysis
Over the last three games Cleveland is 2-1: a recent 103-120 loss to Miami followed by wins of 136-131 (Orlando) and 111-106 (New Orleans), showing they can both explode offensively and close out tight contests. Miami is 1-2 in the last three — beating Cleveland 120-103 but suffering a 111-136 loss to San Antonio and a 122-123 defeat to Houston — a sign of inconsistency on both ends.
Looking at the starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 124.4, a defensive rating of 115.1, and 19.1 points made per starter; Miami’s five average an offensive rating of 116.9, a defensive rating of 114.3, and 17.7 points made per starter. That gap in offensive firepower favors Cleveland, while defensive ratings are close enough that Cleveland’s scoring advantage becomes decisive.
Final Prediction
Cleveland’s stronger offensive profile and recent upward form give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how well Miami defends the Cavaliers’ starters — if Cleveland gets into rhythm early, the spread could be decisive.
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