NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
81.4%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
18.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Anthony Melton
OR
98.2
DR
113.1
PTS
13.0
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
107.3
DR
124.7
PTS
10.2
SG
Brandin Podziemski
OR
113.9
DR
115.2
PTS
13.1
VS
Tre Johnson
OR
104.5
DR
123.9
PTS
12.4
SF
Draymond Green
OR
101.9
DR
114.1
PTS
8.5
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
108.4
DR
119.5
PTS
11.3
PF
Gui Santos
OR
115.5
DR
113.9
PTS
8.6
VS
Will Riley
OR
105.8
DR
124.7
PTS
9.1
C
Kristaps Porziņģis
OR
108.4
DR
115.4
PTS
15.9
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
108.3
DR
116.9
PTS
16.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Golden State is favored to win this one with an 81.4% probability. Expected starting fives — Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porziņģis. Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Alex Sarr.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 234.29 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo night. The expected spread is 8.42 in favor of the home team, giving Golden State a sizable edge and implying a likely comfortable margin if they execute.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.3 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - Washington Wizards) 8.4 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Golden State's power has been essentially stable with a slight uptick (+0.7), while Washington's rating shows a clearer rise over the last five games (+5.6).

Golden State Warriors

1459.9 +0.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Brooklyn Nets 1459.9 +5.0
2026-03-23 Dallas Mavericks 1454.9 +8.2
2026-03-21 Atlanta Hawks 1446.7 -7.5
2026-03-20 Detroit Pistons 1454.2 -5.0
2026-03-18 Boston Celtics 1459.2 —

Washington Wizards

1312.6 +5.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Utah Jazz 1312.6 +13.7
2026-03-22 New York Knicks 1298.9 -2.9
2026-03-21 Oklahoma City Thunder 1301.8 -2.1
2026-03-19 Detroit Pistons 1303.9 -3.1
2026-03-17 Detroit Pistons 1307.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

2-3 in last 5
W W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 109 106 +3
Dallas Mavericks 137 131 +6
Atlanta Hawks 110 126 -16
Detroit Pistons 101 115 -14
Boston Celtics 99 120 -21

Washington Wizards

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 133 110 +23
New York Knicks 113 145 -32
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 132 -21
Detroit Pistons 95 117 -22
Detroit Pistons 117 130 -13

Game Analysis

Golden State comes in 2-1 over the last three, losing only to Atlanta (110-126) and posting a high-offense win at Dallas (137-131) plus a close win over Brooklyn (109-106). Washington is 1-2, riding a big victory over Utah (133-110) but suffering heavy defeats to New York (113-145) and Oklahoma City (111-132), showing more volatility on both ends. The Warriors’ recent games show they can score in bunches and hang in close contests; the Wizards can explode offensively but have been vulnerable defensively. Looking at the expected starters, Golden State’s five average OFFENSIVE RATING is 107.58, DEFENSIVE RATING 114.34, and average POINTS MADE 11.82. Washington’s projected starters average OFFENSIVE RATING 106.86, DEFENSIVE RATING 121.94, and average POINTS MADE 11.90. The offensive profiles are similar, but the defensive gap (114.34 vs 121.94) favors Golden State and helps explain the projected spread.

Final Prediction

The Warriors’ combination of balanced scoring and markedly better defensive numbers gives them the edge. A key factor to watch: can Golden State limit Alex Sarr’s 16.5 points and prevent Washington’s occasional offensive outbursts from flipping the game.

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