NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
60.6%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
39.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
116.2
DR
113.2
PTS
19.7
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
121.2
DR
115.2
PTS
29.0
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
112.6
DR
112.5
PTS
20.3
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.2
DR
116.3
PTS
16.1
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
127.4
DR
116.2
PTS
19.1
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
109.1
DR
117.1
PTS
14.7
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
118.7
DR
115.2
PTS
17.2
VS
Paul George
OR
112.4
DR
112.5
PTS
16.4
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
135.8
DR
110.9
PTS
8.1
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
118.5
DR
114.6
PTS
26.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets are projected to win (60.6% probability). Expected starting five — Charlotte: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté. Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring affair with a combined total around 243.23 points, indicating an uptempo game or porous defenses on both sides. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 4.69 points in favor of the home team, but the projection still favors Charlotte, suggesting they overcome that home edge.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 243.2 Most likely outcome: 243 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Philadelphia 76ers) 4.7 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Charlotte’s power rating has risen sharply (+30.2 over five games) while Philadelphia’s has climbed more modestly (+14.3).

Charlotte Hornets

1603.9 +30.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-26 New York Knicks 1603.9 +11.3
2026-03-24 Sacramento Kings 1592.6 +4.7
2026-03-21 Memphis Grizzlies 1587.9 +4.2
2026-03-19 Orlando Magic 1583.7 +10.0
2026-03-17 Miami Heat 1573.7 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1515.5 +14.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Chicago Bulls 1515.5 +7.4
2026-03-23 Oklahoma City Thunder 1508.1 -6.2
2026-03-21 Utah Jazz 1514.3 +6.1
2026-03-19 Sacramento Kings 1508.2 +7.0
2026-03-17 Denver Nuggets 1501.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 114 103 +11
Sacramento Kings 134 90 +44
Memphis Grizzlies 124 101 +23
Orlando Magic 130 111 +19
Miami Heat 136 106 +30

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 157 137 +20
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 123 -20
Utah Jazz 126 116 +10
Sacramento Kings 139 118 +21
Denver Nuggets 96 124 -28

Game Analysis

Charlotte arrives on a three-game winning streak (wins over New York 114-103, Sacramento 134-90, Memphis 124-101), showing both offensive punch and consistency. Philadelphia is 2-1 in its last three with a huge 157-137 win over Chicago, a 126-116 win over Utah, and a 103-123 loss at Oklahoma City, signaling occasional defensive lapses but big scoring outputs when clicking. Looking at the expected starting units, Charlotte’s five average offensive rating is about 122.1, defensive rating about 113.6, and average points made per starter roughly 16.9. Philadelphia’s starters average roughly 114.9 offensive, 115.1 defensive, and 20.6 points made per starter. That suggests Charlotte has an edge in collective efficiency, while Philadelphia leans more on top-end scoring from Maxey and Embiid.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s recent surge, higher collective offensive rating, and improving power rating give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: can Philadelphia’s duo of Maxey and Embiid outscore Charlotte’s balanced efficiency, or will the Hornets’ team offense control the game?

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